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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 5th, 2013–Jan 6th, 2013

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Sea To Sky.

Confidence

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Sunday: 5-10 cm new snow with generally light southeasterly winds sometimes gusting to 40 km/h. Treeline temperatures around -5C. Monday: 5-10 cm new snow with moderate to strong southeasterly winds gusting to 50 km/h. Treeline temperatures around -5C. Tuesday: 10-20 cm new snow most likely arriving later on in the day. Mostly light winds during the day, increasing later on. Freezing level rising to 1100 m in the afternoon. Note: the current weather pattern is not well defined by weather models. There is the possibility for significant variations from the above best estimates.

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanches have been reported. Cornice chunks falling onto slopes have not triggered slabs.

Snowpack Summary

Incoming snow may not bond well to existing snow surfaces including surface hoar (up to 20 mm in size), facets, hard wind slabs or a sun crust. Storm slab problems may develop very quickly once it begins snowing. Recent SE winds have formed new wind slabs at alpine and treeline elevations, while older wind slabs appear generally well settled. No significant shears have been observed recently in the top or mid snowpack layers. Near the base of the snowpack, a crust/facet layer exists which is now unlikely to be triggered, except perhaps by heavy triggers in steep, shallow, rocky terrain where more facetting has taken place.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.