Avalanche forecast

Mount Shasta

Mount Shasta Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
4 · High
Below
4 · High
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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Very dangerous avalanche conditions exist. New snow depths have become deep, with wind drifted areas pushing 2+ feet, and more snow at our doorstep. Natural and human triggered avalanches are likely. These slides could run farther than expected, into lower angle terrain. Stay off of, and out from underneath, avalanche terrain.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    2–3.5

    So far, this storm system has provided 3 inches of snow water equivalent (SWE) to the snowpack. That is a TON of weight applied in a very short period of time (36 hours). Without enough time to adjust to the newly added load, the snowpack has destabilized. Wind and storm slab avalanches are likely, with one or both affecting all aspects and elevations. Today is not the day to be testing the snowpack, stay off of terrain steeper than 30 degrees. 

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    The last 36 hours has brought warm and wet conditions to the forecast area. Over 3 inches of SWE has fallen throughout the storm, with another 1.5 inches expected in the next 24 hours. Near and below treeline, the snowpack could become saturated, resulting in loose wet avalanches. Stay clear of avalanche prone areas today.

Avalanche Discussion

The forecast area is currently experiencing a slight break in precipitation, but make no mistake, rain and snow will return this afternoon with intensity. The next 24 hours will provide 1.5 inches of water (10–18 inches of snow) at a minimum, with some forecasting models suggesting 2+ inches. Today the message is simple, stay clear of avalanche terrain. 

A natural D2-sized avalanche was observed yesterday below treeline. This avalanche broke 8–18 inches deep, over 1000 feet wide, and ran 400 feet into trees. The running surface was a solar crust from the last warm-up. This slide is a great indicator of what to expect out there, travel with caution. Remember, just because an area has a lot of trees and no obvious starting zones, doesn't mean it's safe. If it's over 30 degrees, avalanches are possible. Check out the avalanche observation HERE and the Old Ski Bowl field observation HERE.

On the bright side, the new dense snow offers excellent support for low-angle skiing. Mount Shasta boasts numerous low-angle zones that are free from avalanche hazards above. If you still want to get into the backcountry, grab a topo map, inclinometer, a partner, and go find some safe low-angle skiing!

A huge thank you to all who joined in the festivities this weekend! It's been an unforgettable experience, and we're already excited to race and dance with each and every one of you again next year!

Regions covered