Avalanche forecast

Mount Shasta

Mount Shasta Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

New snow, resting on top of a stable snowpack, is your primary focus today. Overnight, a couple inches of wet snow have fallen, with additional accumulation expected over the next 48 hours. Should new snow amounts verify, avalanches could be possible. Likelihood and size will increase with elevation. Visibility will be tough above treeline.  Climbers...don't climb into a whiteout, especially on the upper mountain. Use an assessment mindset if tromping around the winter landscape. Flexible partners and plans are some of the best things to have in the backcountry.

 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Over the past 24 hours, the wind has blown primarily out of the south and southeast, averaging 13 mi/hr with gusts to 42 mi/hr. New snow measures 2–4 inches and is likely moist, falling late yesterday and last night. Additional southerly wind and fresh snow is expected over the weekend. As you gain elevation into windy locales, look for signs of wind loading. Active wind blowing snow, drifts near trees, rocks, ridgelines and bowls and cracking or blocking on small test slopes are good signs that larger slabs could be possible. Slabs may be small to large and possible to trigger with enough new snow and wind loading. Slabs could fracture at the new and old snow interface, or within density changes of the new snow.

  • Cornices

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2

    Cornice fall remains an avalanche problem in the Castle Lake area. While it's unlikely they will calve today, this is a precautionary piece for the days and weeks to come. These monsters lurk above Heart Lake, which is easily accessed by many folks without backcountry experience or avalanche rescue gear. Keep clear from beneath the ridge until they have crumbled naturally.

    (4/10/2024) Photo: Cory Beattie

Avalanche Discussion

Forecasted versus actual new snow amounts for our April storm have not aligned, so there is some uncertainty in the forecast today. The avalanche danger reflects should we get it all. If the underperforming trend continues, the avalanche danger will be lower. If the storm decides to do what models indicate, one to two feet of new snow is possible by the end of the weekend. We will believe it when we see it. It's easy to get lost in the infinite space of hypotheticals. Instead of focusing on what if, ground yourself in what is. Don't throw caution to the wind, maintain a curious mindset and pay attention to the standard red flags of avalanche danger. If you see any of them, consider staying off avalanche terrain.

April 14th will be our last daily forecast for the season. After that, we will publish bi-weekly climbing advisories that will include climbing route updates and any pertinent avalanche information. 

Rain or shine, come on down TODAY, 4-7PM, to the Spring Hill Nursery for our Community and Member Appreciation Party where we will have FREE food, drinks, and live music. This party is for YOU!

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