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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 21st, 2015–Feb 22nd, 2015

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Kootenay Boundary.

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Confidence

Good - Timing of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Were looking at a couple of nice days. Freezing levels will climb during the day but are forecast to return to valley bottom overnight. Sunday will see a high of -5C in the Alpine with light westerly winds. Monday will have a high of 0C and light northwesterly winds with some clouds in the afternoon. Tuesday will be much the same. No new precipitation is expected through the forecast period.

Avalanche Summary

Things appear to be locked up tight and no new avalanches have been reported in the last couple of days.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 5cm of snow covers a widespread layer of surface hoar above a crust that extends all the way to ridge crest. The curst is effectively "capping" the snowpack and doing a good job of protecting the buried weak layers bellow. However, I suspect that the  mid-January surface hoar layer could still produce an avalanche if given a large enough trigger in the right spot. It can be found down about 1m in the alpine and 50-60cm at treeline. The mid-December crust/facet/surface hoar weakness may persist in the mid to lower snowpack at higher elevations.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.