Avalanche forecast

East Cabinet Mountains

Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Recent storm snow will become more sensitive as rising temperatures, high elevaton rain and strong winds impact the area.  Avalanche danger will likely rise to HIGH by Monday morning as the rain/snow line is predicted to rise to over 8,000'. Avoid travelling in or below steep terrain as the temperature rises and our upper snowpack becomes more unstable.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2.5

    Triggering a wind slab or storm slab at all elevations is likely today.   Avoid open terrain steeper than 30 degrees. Loaded gullies and steep slopes below ridgeline will be the most likely areas to trigger an avalanche in the new snow. 

    Temperatures will rise today and the rain line will move up to 8,000'. This will cause the recent storm snow and wind slabs to become more reactive over the next 48 hours. 

    (12/21/2022) Photo taken in Silver Valley earlier this week of an avalanche triggered in the most recent storm snow and wind loading.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    Our deep persistent weak layer in the snowpack has been relatively quiet the past two weeks. The incoming warm air and rain on snow could be the stressor that wakes up this sleeping dragon. Much depends on how warm we get, and for how long. This is an unpredictable scenario, the best way to deal with uncertainty in the snowpack is to mimimize your exposure to steep and open terrain until it cools off.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–1.5

Avalanche Discussion

It's been a dynamic week weather wise and the elements will continue to change while throwing curve balls our way. With the cold front we saw crazy temperatures and winds that kept most of the smarter people inside. Wind slabs and loading could be observed all the way down to the valley bottoms and abundant amounts of cold, dry snow. 

Next on the menu will be temperatures rising tonight through Tuesday, with more snow and rain/freezing rain in the forecast.  Expect avalanche conditions to rise as dense, heavy snow and rain falls atop the low density snow from this past week, creating an upside down snowpack. Monday night appears to bring the biggest weather changes with temperatures and snowlines rising. The issue of concern here will be a rapid rise in temperatures while adding additional weight to the snowpack in the form of rain. Avalanche stability declines with rapid weather changes. When warm air and rain rolls in it has two effects to the snowpack. First it weakens bonds in the snow, and while doing so it also adds additional weight. Imagine holding a barbell over your head while one friend adds weight to it, meanwhile, your other friend tickles you. Eventually you are going to drop the weight in spectacular fashion. With all of the light cold snow out there I see a strong potential for "loose-wet" avalanches at lower elevations and a chance to test out the strength of our deeper weak layer. Failures in our upper layer of storm slabs may be the trigger that causes a step down to the November rain crust.

There is still room in IPAC's Level 1 motorized avalanche class! Follow the link for details: https://www.idahopanhandleavalanche.org/friends-ipac-avalanche-safety-courses

Also, you should check out our new "Observations" platform thanks to the fund raising efforts of our Friends group and Board Member Mike Brede!

https://www.idahopanhandleavalanche.org/observations#/view

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