Avalanche forecast

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Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

It may still be possible to trigger avalanches near the highest ridges where the wind drifted snow over the weekend. Steer around areas of stiff, drifted snow at upper elevations or stick to lower-angled slopes and wind-sheltered terrain. Expect quiet weather during the day and a major jump in avalanche hazard with an incoming storm on Tuesday night. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Watch for triggering avalanches in stiffer slabs and pillows of snow on the leeward sides of ridges. Warning signs include cracks shooting through the snow and areas of stiff, wind-sculpted snow. You can avoid these avalanches by sticking to wind-sheltered terrain, slopes under 35 degrees, and steering around drifts and wind features.

    Strong winds likely drifted snow Saturday night into Sunday morning. Winds averaged in the mid-20mph range with gusts up to 32mph. By Tuesday, it will be more difficult to trigger avalanches than days prior. There's a chance for wind slabs near treeline, though triggering them is less likely than at upper elevations.

     

    (12/8/2021)

    An example of long shooting cracks in freshly wind drifted snow, a red flag sign of instability. 

    Photo: Matt Primomo

Avalanche Discussion

It's early season and the snowpack is shallow.  Hitting shallowly buried trees and rocks can be dangerous. These obstacles can increase the consequences of getting caught in even a small avalanche. 

Expect frigid temperatures for Tuesday, with highs in the single digits. Bring extra layers and monitor exposed skin for cold injuries. Cold, calm conditions could also form a weak interface for the next storm. Expect the avalanche danger to quickly increase on Tuesday night with the next round of snow. Will this be the storm to test a layer of weak snow that formed in mid-November? We'll see. Watch for whumphing collapses in the snowpack and punchy weak snow. Approach sheltered northern terrain cautiously and dig below the surface to identify any sugary, weak layers of snow. Avoid steep slopes if you find these indicators of instability. 

On Monday, an observer near Cutthroat peak reported snow depths of 3-5 feet with about a foot of recent snow that fell Saturday night to Sunday. He found some small facetted layers near the ground and around late November crusts, but no results in snowpack tests. We have limited observations on the extent and distribution of weak, faceted snow from mid-November. An observer noted being able to easily push a pole through the snowpack to the ground in the Hairpin Valley on the 22nd, indicating a weak snowpack. On the 25th, observers found light rain up to about 7,600ft at Blue Lake Col. The rain had created a few very small wet loose avalanches, and about an inch of the snow surface was saturated. The warm temperatures and rain may not have been enough to strengthen this weak layer of snow.  

If you are out and about in the mountains, let us know what you find by submitting an observation.

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