Avalanche forecast

Northwest Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Avalanches this week have followed a clear pattern of failing on slopes that were stressed by our recent wind event.  Slabs in leeward terrain features are breaking on weak layers in the middle of the snowpack and in some cases, weak layers near the ground.  Avoid steep slopes that look or feel recently wind-loaded, characterized by denser, thicker snow on the snow surface.   Seek out softer, wind-protected snow for safer riding options.  

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–3

    Slabs up to several feet thick have the potential to fail on faceted weak layers near the ground and in the middle of the snowpack. Problematic weak layers exist on most aspects.  The slabs are more common and most sensitive on leeward terrain from recent west to northwest winds.    Persistent slabs are notorious for erratic feedback and unusual behavior, such as remote triggering and wide propagation. To reliably avoid the problem, choose routes that keep you off and out from under terrain steeper than about 30 degrees where you find stiff and cohesive slabs. In steeper terrain, you can reduce your chance of triggering an avalanche by avoiding smooth, drifted slopes.

    This persistent slab avalanche wrapped from shady to sunny aspects and broke on weak layers near the ground. This a good example of the potential size and widely propagating behavior of persistent slabs breaking on weak layers near the ground.

Avalanche Discussion

Merry Christmas from the CBAC team!

Since December 9th, billy barr has measured only 2.5" of snow in Gothic.  In a wind-free world, we'd be dealing with unlikely avalanche problems after two weeks of mostly dry weather.   However, our world has been far from wind-free.  The extreme west to northwest wind event last Wednesday night spurred continued dangerous avalanche activity breaking on recently buried weak layers and weak layers near the ground.  Of the 30 avalanches we have documented this week, all of them failed on slopes that were getting wind-loaded during the storm.  The bulk of activity was on northeast to south aspects, the direction that the wind was pointed at.  

Though wind-sheltered slopes aren't a guarantee for safe riding, they offer a much lower risk of triggering an avalanche.  And the best part is, they also have softer snow with higher riding quality right now.  If you can sniff out soft, faceted snow that hasn't been thickened and stiffened by recent winds, you're in a safer snowpack. Pair that with low-consequence terrain free of traps in the runout like gullies, trees, and benches, and you've set yourself up for a relatively low-risk day.  Wind-eroded slopes, characterized by rippled sastrugi and erosional features, also offer lower risk options, though the riding quality isn't as smooth.  This video demonstrates the difference between wind-loaded and wind-eroded slopes.

Regions covered