Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Wednesday

WEDNESDAY: Snow with 25-40cm of accumulation and rain possible at lower elevations, moderate to strong southwest winds, freezing level around 1300m.THURSDAY: Flurries, accumulations 5-10cm, strong southwest winds, freezing level around 1300m.FRIDAY: Mainly cloudy with the possibility of isolated flurries, light south wind and freezing level around 1000m.More details can be found on the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Conditions are expected to change overnight as a storm moves into the region and new storm slabs develop. As the load increases over the next few days expect the likelihood of deeper buried layers failing to increase under the new load of snow combined with wind and warm temperatures.

A storm is arriving overnight Tuesday and expected to intensify during the day on Wednesday. Expect new storm slabs to develop above existing weak layers described here. Recent cold and clear weather has promoted both faceting of surface snow as well as the growth of surface hoar that has been reported to be up to 15mm in size below treeline. A sun crust has also been reported forming on steep solar aspects. Beneath a variety of old snow surfaces are buried, including wind scoured surfaces and old wind slabs, widespread near surface faceting (sugary snow), surface hoar in sheltered locations, and/or a breakable sun crust on steep solar aspects. The mid-December surface hoar/ facet layer typically sits down 40-70 cm. This layer is still reactive to some snowpack tests in some areas but is currently considered to be dormant or inactive. However, once the snowpack starts to see a big change, like warming, the likelihood of triggering may increase.