Avalanche forecast

Gunnison

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

The wet cycle escalated in size and frequency over the past two days and will likely continue today.  This video of a destructive wet slab off of Gothic yesterday says it all.  A shallow refreeze will provide a short window of improved stability this morning before full-depth wet avalanches become easy to trigger on slopes steeper than 35 degrees.  These are nasty cement mixers that you don't want to mess with.  

Avalanche problems

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–3

    Recent wet slab avalanche activity has most often been triggered by smaller wet loose avalanches releasing higher up on the slope. These avalanches can also be human-triggered. The heavy weight of the wet snow will make skiing out of one of these cement mixers nearly impossible.  The most active terrain this week has been where previously dry snowpacks are currently or recently transitioning to wet conditions (E to NE and W to NW aspects), especially on steeper, rockier slopes that amplify melt. Most southerly-facing slopes have already made this transition, while high, north-facing terrain has remained mostly dry. Wet avalanches are less likely early in the day while the snow surface remains frozen and meltwater production is limited. The hazard increases as the snowpack warms, crusts thaw, and/or free water moves deeper into the snowpack.

    This wet slab avalanche ran midday on Tuesday near Ruby Peak.  It broke several feet deep, starting on a northeast aspect and propagating into an east aspect. (3/24/2026)

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Wet loose avalanches are the most concerning where you sink deeply into wet snow. In these areas, a small point-release avalanche can entrain the entire snowpack, becoming powerful and large. In some cases, small wet loose avalanches also trigger bigger wet slab avalanches as they run downslope. Reduce your exposure to this avalanche problem by traveling early in steep terrain before surface crusts thaw or moving to lower slope angles.   

    Most of the avalanches in this photo are wet loose avalanches that gouged into a saturated snowpack and grew to dangerous sizes in sustained steep terrain.  (3/24/2026) 

Avalanche Discussion

We remain entrenched in an impressively prolonged wet cycle, the result of unprecedented heat, poor refreezes, and poor snowpack structures. Since the warmup began, our forecast team has been conducting regular afternoon bino tours from Mt. CB to document trends in wet avalanches. Activity has become more frequent over the past two days (we documented 54 avalanches - 28 D2s - that likely ran on Tuesday and Wednesday). The weeklong heatwave peaked yesterday, and that may coincide with the peak of wet activity.  The fact that we are now seeing full-depth wet plows and wet slabs from high northeast aspects speaks to the extensive spread of meltwater throughout our terrain.  What a time to be alive!  The only change we've made to our wet problems today is to notch the potential size of wet slabs up to D3: the avalanche on Gothic yesterday was somewhere in the D2.5 to D3 range, and now that deeper alpine slopes are getting saturated, there is rare potential for very large avalanches.  

Where are the most active and dangerous aspects/elevations?  Think of where you would have gone hunting for colder, drier snow in early March:  west to north to east to high southeast.  That terrain has been falling apart out there as it transitions to a wet snowpack (see distribution rose), while most southerly slopes saw more meltwater through the first half of March and have become more resilient to the influx of extreme heat.  High north has also been spared because of limited solar and cooler temperatures, which produce less meltwater.  

Unfortunately, we are in a challenging pattern for backcountry skiing and riding, with roads melting out and creeks surging, trapdoor travel developing early, and ongoing dangerous wet avalanche conditions. Observers have been finding a thin refreeze each morning that quickly breaks down, and large wet avalanches started as early as 9:30 or 10 a.m. on east and northeast-facing terrain yesterday.  Although temperatures will be cooler tomorrow, the forecasted cloud cover on Thursday night could exacerbate our already poor refreezes, making Friday another trapdoor and potentially dangerous day for snow travel in steep terrain.   A cooler, snowier pattern is expected to develop next week, which should improve riding quality and reduce full-depth wet snow hazards.  

Events: Join us and Matchstick Productions at Josés Elevation Hotel deck at the base area this Saturday 1-6 p.m. for the MSP March Meltdown. There will be live music from the Shakedown Family Band and Crested Butte's own Mountain Jam, drink specials and a raffle with proceeds to benefit the Crested Butte Avalanche Center

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