Avalanche forecast

Central Cascades

Central Oregon Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

The OR Cascades will receive steady snowfall for the next 24 hours, and avalanche danger will increase as more snow falls.  New warmer snow is falling with more wind and will overlay the cold weak snow that fell on Tuesday.  On Wednesday avalanches will be likely and could be large on east facing slopes where wind blown snow has accumulated.  Below treeline avalanches will be possible by the end of the end of the day.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    The size of Wind Slab avalanches will grow throughout the day as more snow falls, and wind speeds increase.  Wind deposited snow can be 3-5 times as deep as the snow that's fallen from the sky.  These avalanches will be likely as wind blown snow will be overlaying the colder snow that fell on Tuesday when winds were relatively light.  As wind speeds increase to Strong by Wednesday afternoon wind driven snow may accumulate further down slope than you might expect.

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    It is unlikely that we will see Storm Slab avalanches large enough to bury or injure a rider except where terrain traps are present.  If we receive the low end amounts of forecasted snow (4 inches), we can probably eliminate this problem from the list entirely.  That being said, increasing temperatures are a good setup for these instabilities, and if we receive closer to 8 or 10 inches of snow by the end of Wednesday these avalanches will be worth having on your radar.  Small, unsupported test slopes are the best tool for assessing the likelihood and potential size of Storm Slabs.

Avalanche Discussion

Tuesday was a beautiful day to be in the mountains with cold temperatures and snow falling from the sky.  The range of forecasted snowfall makes Wednesday's avalanche forecast a bit difficult.  The Considerable/Considerable/Moderate danger levels are meant to reflect expected conditions later in the day once more snow has hopefully fallen.  Tuesday's cold, dry snow over the weekend's melt-freeze crust does lend itself to instabilities.

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