Avalanche forecast

West Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
4 · High
Below
4 · High
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Highlights

Very dangerous avalanche conditions exist, as the West Central zone sits in the bullseye for rainfall Tuesday night and Wednesday. Large and very large wet avalanches are expected to run naturally, and this is a day to avoid all avalanche terrain, meaning steep slopes, plus where avalanches run and stop. Beware benign-seeming gullies down low: they could connect to large paths up high, and a large avalanche could come ripping down a sneaky little drainage, surprising you. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    2–3

    We're getting walloped with about 1.5" of rain Tuesday night and another inch during the day Wednesday. It's going to be a wet one out there! This will also be day 3 of warm, wet weather, and we expect a big uptick in avalanche activity. Large and very large, highly unpredictable, natural wet slab avalanches are expected to release. 

    This is a day to avoid travel in all avalanche terrain, which includes steep slopes, plus lower-angle terrain beneath steep slopes, where avalanches run and stop. If you get caught in one of these large, destructive slides, it will likely kill you. Wet avalanches, even if small, can be forceful enough to injure you or push you into hazards, even if they're not big enough to bury you. 

    Example photo: This very large wet avlanche failed at the tail end of a large rain event. It may be hard to see where it started, but take note of where it ended: in relatively low angle terrain, which is where you don't want to find yourself on Wednesday when a large avalanche comes roaring down.  WS-N-D2.5/R2-U

    Photo: Dallas Glass

Avalanche Discussion

Wet loose avalanches initiated Monday morning when the deep layer of dry snow first got wet (observation). Warm temperatures and 3+ inches of rain later, as of Tuesday evening, kept small amounts of continued wet loose avalanche activity on the table, which we can expect to see on Wednesday in addition to much larger, spookier avalanches. The snow varies extensively in the zone, with several feet having fallen from the Hwy 2 corridor south over the last storm, versus much less in the northern parts of the zone, where danger may be lower.

There are two crusts where avalanches are most likely to fail: The 3/12 crust sits about 2 feet below the surface, and the 3/8 crust is another 2 feet beneath that- at least in the southern half of the zone. These could both be sources of wet slab avalanches on Wednesday. From the 11th to the 14th in the Stevens Pass zone, where there were similar storm amounts to the southern half of the West Central zone, professionals and observers reported an impressive cycle of large to very large natural and triggered slab avalanches. By the 15th, avalanches were becoming more difficult to trigger, and the storm snow was bonding well.

Be ready to assess conditions for yourself if you go out on Wednesday. Consider the consequences of falling in wet, deep snow. At mid and lower elevations, holes around boulders and creeks may be barely covered and could lead to a dangerous fall. Make sure to keep close tabs on your partners in case you need to rescue them. 

Regions covered