Avalanche forecast

West Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
Open full map
Out of date — this forecast expired 4 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Heavy snowfall will continue overnight and sustain danger from natural avalanches into Wednesday morning. Start your day with a conservative plan. Stick to lower-angle slopes to reduce the risk of triggering an avalanche. Look out for wet avalanches if the sun makes an appearance.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    You are more likely to trigger an avalanche on slopes with recent wind loading but consider all steep terrain as suspect until proven otherwise. The best policy is to simply avoid large steep slopes or smaller slopes with consequences like trees or gullies in the runout.  Don't ignore obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks or whumphing.

    A Puget Sound Convergence Zone should put down another 6-14"  in West Central from Hwy 2 north to Darrington. This includes the Mountian Loop. This is on top of the 12" or more that fell so far. New snow takes time to bond and avalanche danger will not decrease until it stops snowing. Even then, conditions will still be considered dangerous given the amount of new snow, wind loading, and natural avalanches since Tuesday morning. 

     

    (2/7/2023)

    Fresh storm slab avalanche crowns on Shuskan Arm/West North in near treeline terrain.

    Photo: Mt Baker Patrol

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    There is no shortage of fresh, new snow out there. If the sun comes out and southerly aspects warm up, wet loose avalanche activity might consist of more than a few rollerballs. There’s no guarantee you will see anything significant. Still, stay alert to steep slopes overhead if the sun comes out.

    Look for initial signs of instability like snow shedding from trees and rocks. Pinwheels or balls of snow rolling down the slope are also telltale signs of warming. If you see these it would be a great time to give a wide berth to slopes that face the sun. Though initially small, wet avalanches could grow in size or trigger a slab avalanche lower on the hill and run farther than expected.

    (1/25/2023)

    Look for rollerballs like this to help you identify slopes of concern as the day warms up. 

    Photo: Jere Burrell - Guided Exposure

Avalanche Discussion

A widespread natural avalanche cycle occurred Tuesday around Shuksan and the Mt. Baker Ski Area. Multiple avalanches to D3 in size - some even larger - were reported. Backcountry observations were limited due to stormy conditions, heavy snowfall, and high avalanche danger. Those who were out found easy to trigger test features and slopes. Signs of natural avalanche activity were noted despite very poor visibility.

Snowfall totals so far ranged from 1-2' feet up and down the west slopes. In addition to the natural avalanche cycle mentioned above, human and naturally triggered avalanches to D2 were reported from Stevens and  Snoqualmie Pass. Avalanches occurred in and also out of wind loaded terrain. Large rollerballs and wet loose avalanches were noted at low and mid-elevations in Snoqualmie Pass where snow levels at 4500' were reported.

If you are out in West Central tomorrow, submit an observation and let us know what you see!

Regions covered