Avalanche forecast

Sawtooth & Western Smoky Mtns

Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 8 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Triggering large avalanches is not out of the question. You can greatly reduce your risk by avoiding steep, wind-affected, rocky slopes with variable snow depths.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    While unlikely, we can't write off triggering large avalanches in middle and upper elevation terrain. Unfortunately, you may not receive any obvious signs of instability before triggering one of these lingering monsters. We are most concerned with deeply buried weak facets found near the ground on middle and upper elevation slopes, especially those facing away from the sun.

    Triggering a slide on this layer is most likely on steep windy and/or rocky slopes where the snowpack depth is variable and in more sheltered terrain where the snowpack is around 3 feet deep.

    Additional Discussion: You may be able to trigger wind slab avalanches that formed near ridgelines and in cross-loaded areas on the sides of gullies.  Look for recent cornice growth, dunes, or ripples in the snow surface and listen for hollow-drum-like sounds as indicators that you've found wind slabs. These may break wider than expected due to crust interfaces in the upper snowpack.

    (12/28/2025) Large natural avalanches. Paradise Peak and West Fork Big Creek. Photo: Sawtooth Avalanche Center

Avalanche Discussion

We're inching our way towards lower danger, but the SAC team still gets the heeby-jeebies when thinking about the high-consequences of triggering an avalanche on early December weak layers. The pesky facets are buried under a whole heap of holiday storm snow and are showing clear signs of healing, but they haven't quite gone dormant enough for us to write them off.

In areas with uniform snowpacks and consistently deep snow depths, the chances of triggering a large avalanche are low. Sliding and riding on steep rocky slopes with wind-affected snow and variable snow depths ups the chances you'll trigger a large avalanche and will probably feel a lot like gambling... so are you feeling lucky? That's not a gamble we'd take right now, especially with the knowledge that those deeply buried weak layers are headed in the right direction. Being patient and keeping diligent in avoidance of those tempting slopes during these drawn-out transitional times makes the fruits of future snowpack stability all the more rewarding.

We'd like to offer a special thanks to all those that submitted observations over the past couple of weeks! The quantity and quality of observations really helped us put the puzzle of avalanche conditions together, especially during the wild holiday multi-day storm event!

Regions covered