Avalanche forecast

Gunnison

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Strong winds and drifting snow are increasing the avalanche danger.   Expect to find freshly drifted slabs scattered across leeward and crossloaded terrain today.  Look for smooth, drifted looking textures to identify features of concern in steep terrain.   Although it's unlikely, we have lingering concerns that you can  trigger a larger slab avalanche that breaks deeper into the snowpack on northerly facing aspects in very steep, rocky, or unsupported terrain.  

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Strong westerly winds overnight and today will drift any soft snow on the surface into thin slabs in leeward and crossloaded terrain.  Slabs will look smoother and feel thicker than the surrounding snow.  Because winds are unusually strong, you may find slabs getting deposited further down slope than normal or in unusual locations.  Use extra caution above cliffs, gullies, or trees, where the consequences of a small slab will be magnified.  

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1.5–2

     Slab avalanches breaking into old weak layers several feet deep have become unlikely, but not impossible.  Higher elevation, northerly facing terrain still holds a dry, winterlike snowpack; thus we can't completely eliminate the potential for a rare but large slab avalanche on these aspects.  The most suspect terrain is convex or unsupported slopes, especially near rock bands. You are most likely to trigger a slide from a shallower spot on the slope.  If you are skiing or riding in that type of terrain, reduce your group's exposure during uphill travel and choose appropriate safe zones from a large avalanche while descending.  Let your friend wrestle their stuck snowmobile off of suspect slopes by themselves.  

    Example of a persistent slab avalanche that likely failed last week.  The avalanche highlights the type of terrain that is most worrisome:  northerly, rocky, and unsupported.  

Avalanche Discussion

Expected snowfall today has been downgraded, but winds have not.  With strong to extreme wind speeds overnight and today, winds are raking the soft snow lingering on northerly aspects and drifting it across the terrain at higher elevations.  Where those winds eddy out or slow down, expect to find small and fairly isolated wind slabs forming. This will most commonly be in gullies, in concavities, behind tree fences, and behind ribs.  If we pick up a few inches of snow today, that will add more fuel for winds to transport and expand wind slab distribution to more terrain.  

Low elevations saw a poor refreeze overnight with warm temperatures and cloud cover.  While many below treeline slopes have matured through enough thaw now that they are unreactive, you may still be able to trigger a wet loose avalanche on very steep terrain on the northern half of the compass today.  Take note of how wet the snow surface is and if steep test slopes collect more volume before riding in high consequence terrain near valley bottom.   

If you've followed along with our forecasts this winter, you know that we have a well-developed weak layer that raged into action in late February, and continued to produce large avalanches into the first two weeks of March.  Since mid-March, our forecast area has only seen two dry persistent slabs fail on old layers (Example A, Example B), while bordering regions in the Aspen Zone and North San Juans have been more active in recent weeks.  The dramatic warmup late in March flushed meltwater into the snowpack on all but northerly aspects, thus transitioning the snowpack on west, south, and east aspects into a trustworthy spring snowpack.  Given the isolated persistent slab avalanche activity and lack of signs of instability over the past few weeks, it's clear that the odds of triggering a persistent slab within our forecast area are quite low, but not zero.

End of season party! Join us at the Talk of the Town Friday, April 8 from 6-10 p.m. as we wish to say thank you to all of our sponsors, supporters, and the community at large. We will have complimentary Modelo beer for everyone, live music from Congo Turner & Company, and a free raffle.

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