Avalanche forecast

Togwotee Pass

Bridger-Teton Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
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Highlights

Wet avalanche activity will be possible at middle elevations as temperatures warm this morning. Any period of prolonged sunshine could destabilize steep, sunny slopes.  As clouds build, winds increase and temperatures drop this afternoon, the wet avalanche hazard will decrease. It is unlikely that you will trigger an avalanche on steep northerly slopes but weak snow remains buried near the ground. Carefully evaluate the snowpack for signs of warming this morning and avoid steep, sunny slopes if the snow surface becomes wet and unsupportable.

Avalanche problems

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Wet avalanche activity could become possible today as temperatures warm this morning. This includes both wet loose and wet slab avalanches or a combination of both. Middle elevations barely dipped below freezing while slopes above 9000 feet received a harder freeze. The wet avalanche hazard will decrease by this evening as clouds build and temperatures cool. Temperatures today are expected to rise above freezing at 9000 feet and any prolonged period of sunshine will destabilize surface snow on steep, sunny slopes near rocky outcrops. Several days and nights of above-freezing temperatures at middle elevations have resulted in meltwater flowing through the snowpack which is a recipe for wet avalanches. Wet snow beneath the surface still exists despite the cooler conditions today. Carefully monitor the surface snow conditions today. Move away from steep terrain if surface crusts break down and the snow becomes wet and slushy.

    Cornices continue to be active with recent warm weather. An observation from Brooks  supports the increased hazard. Minimize the amount of time spent under slopes with looming cornices. Large falling chunks of cornice can be difficult to avoid in confined terrain and can act as very large triggers impacting deep weak layers. If you are on a ridge, remember that cornices break much further back than you might think. 

     

    (3/20/2024)

    Wet avalanche debris can often run further than expected. 

    Photo: Cameron Galt

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Triggering a persistent slab avalanche on weak snow buried 2-4 feet deep is unlikely but not out of the question. See the attached picture of the cornice-triggered avalanche in the Tetons for evidence. As temperatures increase through the day, weak snow buried in the snowpack may become more sensitive to triggers. The most probable areas to trigger a persistent slab avalanche includesteep, rocky, and wind-affected slopes on the north half of the compass. These areas contain thin, shallow spots where riders can easily impact weak layers. Shallower snow is also found east of the continental divide and south towards the Gros Ventre Range. Previous tracks on a slope are not an indicator of stability. Use caution in steep terrain and give yourself a wide margin of error on slopes with high consequences or near terrain traps. Move to low-angle terrain to avoid this problem. 

    The last known persistent slab avalanche occurred on 3/16 in Upper Deception Creek. On 3/19, a wet slab avalanche failing on these persistent weak layers occurred on Breccia. More avalanches such as these are possible during spring warm-ups and may span the border between a wet slab and a persistent slab problem. However, both will be equally destructive avalanche types.

    (4/10/2024) Photo: Dan Hays

    This avalanche crown looks about 200m wide, 2-3m thick and took most of the season snowpack with it. It occurred 4/10 on the Wedge at around 10,000',  SSE of Grand Targhee.

Avalanche Discussion

Partly sunny skies will give way to cooler and cloudy conditions this evening as we enter a period of unsettled weather. A winter weather advisory starts tonight which could bring several inches of snow to the forecast area by tomorrow night. This weather will decrease the wet avalanche hazard but will cause a very hard freeze. Riding conditions will most likely be poor moving forward and a few inches of snow could be just enough to cover recently melted out rocks and logs.

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