Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Dangerous avalanche conditions will quickly develop today and may even rise to High as heavy snowfall and strong winds will build storm slabs at all elevations that may not be bonding well to the old existing surface.  Faceted weak layers and depth hoar on and near the ground will once again struggle to adjust to the newly added snow load. Human-triggered and natural avalanches are likely today.  You can trigger these large and destructive avalanches from below a slope or from a distance away.  Expect any avalanche triggered to break on or near the ground taking with it most of the season's snowpack and may not be survivable.  Cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making are essential as conditions will be changing quickly throughout the day.  Sticking to lower-angled wind-sheltered slopes without steep terrain above you will provide safer skiing and riding options. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    Widespread faceted weak layers and depth hoar on or near the ground will face another big test as heavy snowfall and strong winds build deeper slabs throughout the day. In our overall shallow snowpack, these persistent weak layers have been slow to heal and will most likely become more reactive with this latest round of snow. Pay attention to obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks and loud audible collapses as these are signs that you've found this strong over weak snowpack structure. Avoid being on or connected to slopes over 30 degrees giving avalanche runout zones wide berths as avalanches may be able to run long distances and could be triggered from the flats below.  These persistent slab avalanches could be very large and able to break widely across the slope or terrain features

     

    A large natural avalanche from the last significant storm on 1/2 serves as a reminder of what may see today as our weak facets and depth hoar near the ground face another significant test. 

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Storm slabs will quickly develop through the day with 10 to 14 inches forecasted.  Strong SW winds during the storm will easily drift snow into deeper slabs on the leeward sides of ridgelines and cross-loaded terrain features.  These storm slabs may not be bonding well to old existing surfaces as near-surface facets have formed on many slopes from the high-pressure period before this storm. Watch for shooting cracks on the surface and avoid steep slopes like convex rolls where you find 8 or more inches of new snow.  An avalanche triggered on the surface can be big enough on its own to take you for a ride, however, the more likely scenario is for it to step down into deeper weak layers creating a larger more destructive avalanche. 

Avalanche Discussion

Snow has just started falling early this morning with SW winds currently in the 20 to 30 mph range gusting in the 50's.  As of 5 AM we've picked up a couple of inches of snow.  Snow will quickly ramp up this morning where we could see 1 to 2-inch-an-hour snowfall rates.  By the time the storm exits later tonight, we should see well over a foot of snow with over an inch of water. Moderate to strong SW/W winds will stick around through the day Monday before another storm impacts northern NM Tuesday into Wednesday.  

Most slopes in our mountains right now have a widespread layer of depth hoar and faceted weak layers on or near the ground that formed during the November dry periods.  In snowpits, these persistent weak layers have been found underneath an obvious rain crust that formed during an early December rain event and has been slow to heal in our still relatively shallow snowpack for this time of year.  During our last significant loading event at the beginning of January, we had several large natural avalanches and human-triggered slides on these weak layers. Avalanche mitigation teams have continued to get avalanches in these layers over the last week, which speaks to how dangerous of a setup we currently have.  Avoiding our persistent slab problem is a difficult task right now as most slopes harbor this poor snowpack structure of strong over weak.  Cautious route-finding and conservative terrain selection is the one tool you have to safely travel in the mountains right now.     

At upper elevations, recent strong winds have drifted snow into hard slabs that cap these deeper buried weak layers.  These slabs may be able to hold more weight than lower-elevation terrain where overlying slabs are not as thick or stiff, however, it may just take you hitting a likely trigger point where the slab is thinner, like the margins of the slab or near rock outcroppings.  With a fresh coat of snow, identifying these areas will be difficult. I'd expect some slopes to reach a tipping point later in the day with this storm and run naturally while others may just take you to get the slope to release. 

Dangerous avalanche conditions will stick with us through the week as another series of storms impacts the area Tuesday/Wednesday and another system at the end of the week.  If you're getting out in the mountains, stay safe as it may be some time before we can start to push out into steeper terrain as mother nature runs its course. 

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