Avalanche forecast

Mt Hood

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
Out of date — this forecast expired 4 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

You can trigger a large and dangerous avalanche above treeline where you should avoid all wind-loaded slopes steeper than 35 degrees. Near treeline,  steer around areas of deeper wind-drifted snow which may propagate more widely than you expect. Sensitive cornices deserve extra space along ridgelines and on ascent.

 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    You'll find the widespread wind loading on a variety of aspects. Observers and ski patrol found reactive slabs and snow pits near and above the treeline two days in a row and winds will maintain these dangerous conditions through Friday. Old, large slabs linger on westerly aspects from Wednesday's E wind event while fresher slabs continue forming with the current SSW winds. Above treeline, these avalanches will be large, widespread, and easy to trigger. Avoid all potentially wind-loaded slopes steeper than 35 degrees at these elevations.  Near treeline, danger is moderate, but your travel will be much more nuanced. Three weaknesses that lie above the Christmas crust have us concerned (see the discussion). Wind drifts will create the slab necessary for propagation along these weaknesses. What this means for you is that you'll want to be especially cognizant of where slabs have drifted more thickly in this elevation band. Check for firm over weak snow layers and active wind loading; pay attention to whumphs or shooting cracks; frequent hand shears or test slopes can help you identify mid-storm slabs. Steer around steep and potentially wind-loaded slopes, particularly in areas where you find warning signs. Incremental loading of these weaker snow layers means that they may not reach the threshold for human-triggered avalanches at once, but we think that you can trigger avalanches on these layers in steep, wind-loaded pockets.

    At lower elevations, rain on snow may produce small wet loose avalanches, but in the upper portion of this elevation band, you could find isolated wind slabs.

    (1/5/2023) Small shooting crack, undercut by ski track. SW aspect, 6300’. Photo: Ryan Matz

  • Cornices

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Shifting winds have produced cornices teetering on the brink of failure. Give them a wide berth on the slopes above as cornices have a nasty habit of breaking farther back than you expect. Additionally, don't expose yourself on the slopes below where they could break and trigger a wind slab. 

    (1/5/2023) An example of the many cracks above cornices on west facing terrain that nearly failed but didn’t release. Photo: Ryan Matz

Avalanche Discussion

A complex upper snowpack exists in the Mt. Hood backcountry. Three waves of snow have brought 6-10" of settled snow since January 3rd. On some aspects, these layers lie over buried surface hoar which was found on mid-elevation E, but not W aspects on Thursday. Several inches below, you may find rounding facets sandwiching the 12/30 pencil hard and inconsistent rain crust that extends up to around 6000 ft. NWAC forecaster Joe Dellaporta found propagation within the layer below the crust in an extended column test (E aspect, 5200 ft), while another observer found easy shears on top of the crust in the Timberline area. At this time, we think the 12/30 facet sandwich may be the more concerning layer since it appears to be present on most aspects. It is essential that you listen for whumphs or collapses as you travel and heed these warnings.

Thanks for all the recent observations! Avalanche forecasting is a community project, so having recent observations from the public is a huge part of the process and helps make for a better forecast.  Keep them coming!

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