Avalanche forecast

West Slopes North

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Your main avalanche concern is the elusive weak layers buried beneath the newer storm layer, around 3 feet underneath the snow surface. It wouldn't surprise us if there are some spots where you could still trigger a large avalanche on the layers at mid or upper elevations, although sensitivity has decreased since earlier in the week when several natural and human-triggered avalanches occurred. To reduce your chances of triggering a large avalanche that could kill you, avoid big, steep, unsupported slopes, and when in doubt, just stay off large, steep slopes. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2–2.5

    Persistent slab avalanches remain a concern in the backcountry. During and just after the storm multiple large natural and human-triggered avalanches occurred, including one that buried a skier (observation, observation). The ski area triggered large avalanches with explosives that ran on the persistent weak layer also. 

    Avalanche activity has since decreased. People were out testing steep terrain, including the Arm in the Baker backcountry, Canyon Creek, and Schreibers, on Tuesday and Wednesday. It may be getting harder to trigger an avalanche but don't assume all slopes are safe. It's hard to identify where exactly you might find this weakness due to the unusual patchwork of layers that formed during the January drought. The snow structure varies across the zone - and even across the same slope, so digging a snow pit won't do much good.

    Big triggers like a snowmobile or group of people could trigger an avalanche where the weight of a single person might not. If you trigger one, it could propagate widely, release in adjacent terrain, or from the middle of a slope. You may not get warning signs like whumphs or shooting cracks before an avalanche occurs. 

    You could get away with riding a steep slope, but there's still a small chance you could find a spot nearby, even on the same slope or maybe the next one over where you could trigger a large, unsurvivable avalanche. If you don't want to risk being caught in one of these avalanches, avoid traveling on large, steep slopes, especially areas where the new snow layer has been wind-swept and thinner, or on large, unsupported features. The likelihood of triggering one of these avalanches is low, but the consequence if you're caught is high. 

    If you're traveling to less-visited places in the zone, we have more uncertainty with your likelihood of triggering a large avalanche, and you should assume there's more risk in big terrain there.

    (2/1/2025)

    A human-triggered avalanche in the Baker backcountry that failed all the way down to the underlying older weak layers. From the photo, it looks like a smaller avalanche may have triggered this much deeper one. 

Avalanche Discussion

Very small loose snow sluffs could run on steep slopes on Thursday. They may be dry, or on steep south-facing terrain, if the sun is shining, you may see some moist snow dribbles. We don't expect them to get very big. A thin crust may exist on steep south-facing slopes from the sun peeking out on Tuesday.

At higher elevations where few people have traveled since the storm, you could encounter small wind slabs and trigger an avalanche in them. We don't expect that there will be many, and they will probably be small. It's not out of the question that triggering one of those could provide enough weight to release a persistent slab avalanche. 

There's a lot of deep, light snow out there - about 3 feet of it. Deep snow immersion is a hazard. Have a partner close by. Tree wells and other hidden hazards like creeks are high risk right now. We should get a couple more inches of snow overnight, but not enough to change anything. 

If you decide to step out into steeper terrain, increase your survival chances by having a partner, only exposing one person at a time to the slope, and, as always, be equipped with a transceiver, shovel, and probe. Know how to use your rescue gear and practice regularly so that you can quickly dig your friend out before they die of asphyxia if they didn't die from trauma first. 

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