Avalanche forecast

East Slopes South

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

It will be possible to trigger wet and dry snow avalanches on Saturday, with some precipitation falling as either snow or rain. The most probable place to trigger a slide is in wind-affected snow, so take some time to look for signs of instability, such as blowing snow, cracks shooting from your equipment, and cornice development. Avalanche hazard will double later in the afternoon as heavy rain impacts the zone.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    The East South zone should see a few new inches of dense snow on Saturday, accompanied by moderate wind from the west and southwest. Small fresh slabs might form more so on north and east aspects, but new and old slabs with some lingering sensitivity could be found on all aspects. Warm temperatures and the possibility of rain will weaken cornices, causing them to break off and fall more easily. A triggered wind slab could "step down" and become a more treacherous persistent slab avalanche where poor snowpack structure exists.

    Wind slabs usually form just below ridgelines and on exposed convexities and gullies. Visual clues such as cornices, rippled snow surfaces, and dunes will help you identify where the wind has transported snow. Give cornices a wide berth when standing above and below them. Long shooting cracks from your equipment, collapsing, and recent slab avalanche activity are good reasons to choose more sheltered and lower angle terrain.

    (2/21/2025) Photo: Payton Schiff

    A small skier triggered slab in the East Central zone that failed in a wind loaded area.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2

    There are two weak layers in the snowpack: the January Drought Layer (JDL) buried 2 to 3 feet deep and the 02/13 buried around 1 foot deep. While this week's warm weather has hopefully aided the healing process in the long term, the short term has increased the likelihood of triggering an avalanche. If you find yourself getting rained on, expect the likelihood to rapidly increase, and adjust your route plan accordingly.

    Persistent slabs can break in surprising ways, so be cognizant of the terrain around you. Be on the lookout for signs of instability, including cracking, collapsing, and recent slab avalanches. Use the clues laid out in the wind slab problem to help you identify wind-loaded slopes. Understand that even a small wind slab avalanche can "step down" and trigger a deadlier persistent slab avalanche. Reduce your risk by choosing short, planar slopes free of terrain traps and other hazards. When in doubt, low-angle it out.

    (2/21/2025) Photo: Payton Schiff

    Two problematic interfaces made themselves visible in a small skier triggered slide in the East Central zone.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Freezing levels will rise to around 6500 feet by the end of the day on Saturday. If precipitation falls as rain, the upper portion of the snowpack will rapidly destabilize. Wet snow avalanches can travel further and fan out wider than expected. They can initiate from blobs of snow falling from rocks or cliffs. The heavy debris can be difficult to escape from. If you get rained on, avoid slopes steeper than 30 degrees, and don't linger below hazards where snow can fall from.

    (2/18/2025)

    Wet loose avalanche activity in the Baker backcountry. 

    Photo: Zack McGill - Cascade Mtn Ascents

Avalanche Discussion

An incoming atmospheric (AR) event will rapidly increase avalanche hazard in the last few hours of Saturday as freezing levels rise even higher and heavy rain starts. Plan your day so that you are not still in or below avalanche terrain by later in the afternoon. Take a look at other zones in the forecast region with higher hazard or Avalanche Warnings to get an idea of how quickly things will change once the AR arrives.

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