Avalanche forecast

East Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Strong winds and recent new snow is starting to test our weak upper snowpack. You’ll be able to trigger the largest avalanches in wind-drifted snow or closer to the Cascade Crest, but still be suspicious of sparsely treed, sheltered terrain that may harbor weak, sugary facets under the recent snow. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Strong winds and recent snowfall will keep wind slabs ripe for human-triggering on Sunday. Expect these wind slabs to be larger and more consequential in the western and northern parts of the zone. Some of these wind slabs have likely formed over variable crusts or facets and could break in surprising ways if triggered. 

    You can use visual clues like blowing snow and textured, rippled surfaces to help you identify where the wind has been at work. You’ll commonly find these slabs on the down-wind side of ridges, below cornices, or even on mid-slope convexities due to strong winds.

    The combination of recent loading and a weak upper snowpack should help keep your terrain selection simple and out of the way of steep, wind-loaded slopes. 

    (2/1/2025)

    Blowing snow, fresh drifts, sharp cornices, and rime all point towards wind loading along this ridgeline. 

    Photo: Dallas Glass

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    This problem will be most concerning in areas that received more recent snow like Salmon La Sac and up north near Trinity. Recent snow fell on a weak upper snowpack, so storm slabs may stay reactive and to the weight of a human or machine. 

    The usual strategies and tricks you use to manage risk might not be reliable, given the variation in snowpack structure below the new snow. Some slopes might produce no avalanches or smaller slabs. On other slopes, even those adjacent, you could trigger unusual avalanches that propagate widely, release when you are in the middle of a slope, or might even be triggered from below. Be especially wary of skiing into steep open glades in northerly terrain. Even a small avalanche could push you into unwanted terrain. 

    (2/1/2025)

    A small machine triggered storm slab in the East North zone on Saturday. 

    Photo: Will Govus

Avalanche Discussion

A wide range of snow totals fell in the East Central mountains. The clear winner was Trinity that reported 15 inches of new snow with Salmon La Sac coming second with over 11 inches of new snow. The Wenatchee Mountains like Blewett Pass and Mission Ridge only picked up a light 1-2 inches of low density paired with strong winds. The takeaway here is that avalanche danger will vary depending on your location in the zone. Expect more dangerous conditions in those areas like Trinity, Salmon La Sac and the Teanaway in the coming days. 

The fresh snow is a welcome relief from the high and dry, but it also means taking a gigantic step back and choosing low angle conservative terrain. The current snowpack is highly variable and exceptionally weak in many areas. You can find deep layers of weak facets on north and east aspects at all elevations. A NWAC Forecaster even found faceted snow all the way to the ground at Blewett Pass on Thursday. Other slopes also have facets, breakable or supportable crusts of varying thickness, or hard wind-affected snow.  As these conditions will be hard to assess, manage the hazard like you would a persistent slab avalanche problem. Give yourself wide safety margins and understand that avalanches may break in surprising ways or wider than expected.

 Multiple long-time avalanche professionals have mentioned that the last time we had a similar snowpack was in 2017-2018, which resulted in 7 deaths throughout the Cascades in roughly a week. You can read the accident reports here to re-familiarize yourself. Needless to say, many professionals are on edge about how the next few weeks are going to play out. 

Let us know what you see by submitting a public observation. 

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