Avalanche forecast

Selkirk Mountains

Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired last year. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Today the hazard rating drops to Moderate, but the problems of a complex snowpack remain. Poor snow structure combined with rapidly warming conditions will contribute to variability in the snowpack and stability. You'll encounter different snow surfaces on all aspects and elevations. As you travel investigate the snowpack to make an informed decision regarding the persistent weak layer on north aspects and have a plan in mind to move to lower angle and shaded areas in the afternoon when the likelihood of wet problems increase.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    The upper snowpack is rapidly changing, with surface hoar, faceted grains, and a faceted rain crusts causing instability two to three feet deep. Snowpack tests near and above treeline continue to reveal failures in these weak layers. Surface hoar persists on north to east-facing slopes, while southeast to west-facing slopes contain faceted grains or a fragile crust with facets above and below. Rain earlier this past week has added to the instability creating a weak interface in some areas. With shifting conditions and variability, uncertainty remains. As the snowpack settles, warms, and evolves, it will go through cycles of strength and weakness. The best way to manage this uncertainty is to assess surface conditions carefully before entering avalanche terrain. 

    (2/27/2025)

    Believe it or not, but these surface hoar feathers still exist under an over meter deep slab on a northeast-facing slope around 6,100 feet. They got buried on January 31. These grains did not fail in standard snowpack tests, but did fail in a Deep Tap test at 20 taps. Bitterroot Mountains. February 27, 2025.

    Photo: Chris Bilbrey

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    More wet, heavy snow has built another storm snow layer on the surface. These slabs sit above a harder interface where rain saturated the snowpack then re-froze, or onto prior snowfall at elevations above the rain line. To keep things simple, this has added more depth of recent snow and weight to a snowpack that has shown it's true colors in the last few days. The significant hardness difference between the storm snow of the last few days to what sits underneath is a major factor of the elevated sensitivity. Dense slabs of snow have a higher potential to break wider than you expect, even in wind-sheltered areas. If you're lucky to only observe signs of unstable snow like cracking or collapsing without triggering an avalanche, that's good fortune. Simply avoid exposing yourself or your group to steeper slopes until the new snow has a chance to catch a breath. 

    (2/27/2025)

    A long shooting crack in wind slabe on a ridge line released a cornice.

    Photo: Mikey Church

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2

    Rain saturated snow in the upper snowpack and above freezing overnight temperatures keeps a lingering threat of triggering a wet snow avalanche on slopes steeper than about 30 degrees. Loose snow slides that travel long distances can gouge deeper and leave a dangerous pile of snow at the bottom of a slope, or in gullies and creek bottoms. Some wet avalanches may fail as a more dangerous slab of wet snow, and those types of avalanches will be more difficult to escape. Despite the rain coming to an end, water will likely continue to percolate toward weaker interfaces or buried crusts as temperatures stay mild around 5,000 feet and lower. If you see fresh glide cracks or older ones that look wider, avoid traveling on or below those slopes.

    (2/24/2025) Photo: Micah Krmpotich

Avalanche Discussion

Today feels like April…but it’s important to remember that it is still February. Although the diurnal cycle comes into play today, and the rest of the weekend, the snowpack below has not gone through the metamorphosis associated with a spring snowpack. This being the first significant above freezing warmup of the season means the snowpack is actively changing, which is one of the classic avalanche red flags. Other red flags have also been observed within the last 24hrs: shooting cracks and strong winds drifting snow, etc. With shifting conditions and variability, uncertainty remains. As the snowpack settles, warms, and evolves, it will go through cycles of strength and weakness. The best way to manage this uncertainty is to assess surface conditions carefully before entering avalanche terrain.

Although the danger rating has dropped to Moderate across the board, a complex mix of avalanche problems can be found at all elevations and aspects, and subtle differences between forecast zones with the Silver Valley being a little warmer and a little ahead in the snow’s metamorphic processes. Rain soaked the snowpack at lower elevations and contributed to complex layering at higher elevations. Our concerns with the JDL have not gone away, even though it appears increasingly stubborn, as we are still finding intact surface hoar, faceted grains, and a faceted crust causing instability two to three feet deep and results in pit tests that make us nervous about stepping out into consequential terrain.

If you make it into the mountains today, don’t let the amazing weather cloud your judgment. Be heads up about the complex array of avalanche problems. Look for surface conditions to change significantly on sun exposed aspects as the day progresses and temperatures climb well into the 40’s. When you start to see 6” of soft surface snow and other tell-tale signs of wet snow problems, like roller balls and snow sticking to skis, it’s time to move to shadier aspects and lower angle slopes. Dig and investigate to make an informed decision if you decide to venture into steeper north aspect terrain: consider the consequences of a low probability but large avalanche.

Enjoy the weather but keep your head about you. Ski and ride safe!

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