Avalanche forecast

Moab

Utah Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

  • Alpine
  • Treeline
  • Below treeline
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Out of date — this forecast expired last year. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Most slopes have a LOW danger early this morning. The danger will quickly rise to MODERATE for wet avalanches on all sun exposed slopes. With near record high temperatures, northerly aspects near treeline and below may also be problematic today. To manage this hazard, start and end your day early. Pay close attention to the snow surface. When the snow becomes wet and saturated, it is time to change aspects or head home. Above treeline slopes that face north and northwest will stay cold and dry and have a LOW danger.

Our long standing persistent weak layer problem is generally non-reactive and people are skiing all kinds of terrain without incident. Weak faceted snow still remains on upper elevation, northerly aspects however, and cautious mountain travelers will continue to avoid likely trigger points such as shallow rocky starting zones, thin steep convexities, and areas of very radical, extreme terrain.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    As the day heats up, there is always the possibility for loose wet avalanches on sun exposed slopes. Wet activity will start early on east facing slopes today. Don't underestimate the possibility of wet activity on slopes that face northeast. Yesterday my party observed both natural and skier triggered wet loose avalanches on these slopes. The danger follows the sun with east aspects getting wet first, followed by south and then west. The danger is most pronounced on solar aspects, but with near record temperatures, low and mid elevation northerly aspects will also heat up and shed snow. Pay close attention to the snow surface today. Signs of instability include rollerballs, pinwheels, and sloppy wet snow. Stay off of and out from under steep slopes when these signs are present.

Special Announcement

Construction is back on today and the Loop Road will be closed from Pack Creek between 8:30-5:30.

Our regular daily avalanche forecasts will end this Sunday, April 13. After that, we will issue updates when necessary and publish public observations until May 1.

Geyser Pass Road: The road is melted out to the dirt down low but becomes increasingly wet and sloppy up high. 4x4 required.

Grooming Conditions: Grooming is done for the season.

Motorized Users—Please consider taking this 5-minute survey to help researchers better understand avalanche education participation and safety preparedness. Responses are anonymous and confidential. Thank you!

Recent Activity

See the complete avalanche database here.

Snow and Weather

6 A.M. Snow and Weather Data

24 Hour Snow: 0" 72 Hour Snow: 0" Season Total Snow: 138" Depth at Gold Basin: 43"

Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: N/A Temp: 33° F

Weather

Under clear skies, it is 33° F in Gold Basin this morning. Mountain winds are light out of the SW. High temperatures are expected to reach the mid 50s° F at 10,000'. Overnight lows will be in the mid 30's° F. Tomorrow, temperatures will once again soar above 50° F, and we will see increasing clouds and blustery winds out of the southwest. Temperatures will drop by about 10° F on Sunday, and overnight lows will be in the mid 20s° F, giving the mountains a solid refreeze.

General Conditions

Spring skiing is in full effect. Overnight lows hovered just above the freezing point. Skies remained clear and you may find a shallow surface refreeze. Corn skiing on sunny slopes is great right now, but with the lack of a true overnight refreeze, your window will be very short today as temperatures will once again be well above normal. You will want to be off of east facing slopes very early. Yesterday, my party descended a steep east face around 10:30, and our ski tracks triggered some small wet loose avalanches. We also kicked off a wet loose avalanche on a high elevation northeast aspect just after noon. Start and end your day early to manage this problem. If the snow is becoming wet and sloppy or your boots are punching into the snowpack, you are too late. Dry, powder-like snow still exists on north facing slopes above the treeline. If you are aiming to ski cold snow, you will still want to finish early as mid and low elevation northerlies will get in on the wet activity today. Weak layers of facets still exist on the northerlies, but multiple parties continue to ski big lines without incident, and conditions are generally stable. The mountains will get a deep freeze this weekend, and after the freeze, I will be ready to ski with an “open season” mindset.

Northerly aspects hold plenty of snow, while the southerlies are melting out quickly. Ryan Huels photo.

Snowpack and Weather Data

Snowpack Observations

Gold Basin Storm Stake (10,000')

Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')

SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')

Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')

NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.

Additional Info

Check out the latest UAC podcast with forecaster Brett "Kowboy" Kobernick where he discusses faceted persistent weak layers and how "nobody is immune from getting killed in an avalanche."

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General Announcements

This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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