Avalanche forecast

Continental

Valdez Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
Out of date — this forecast expired last year. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The avalanche hazard remains Moderate at all elevations.  It will be possible for a person to trigger a wind slab avalanche today that could be up to 2 feet in depth.  Wet loose avalanches are an additional concern on sunny slopes and at low elevations during the heat of the day.

Avalanche Forecasts are issued Wednesday-Sunday at 8am.  

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    A short North wind event on 3/31 added to the depth of windslabs that had formed the prior week and formed new slabs in specific areas previously unaffected by wind.  These slabs are not widespread, but do exist on the lee side of some high elevation ridge lines.  Thompson Pass road corridor has more windslabs than more remote zones due to the wind channeling effect of Thompson Pass.  

    It remains possible to trigger one of these wind loaded pockets as shown by the observation from 4/1 where a skier triggered an avalanche on a wind loaded slope just beneath a high elevation ridge line (see observation section).  Another skier triggered avalanche was reported on the 29th in Loveland Basin on a South aspect.  It is possible that both of these slides had a melt freeze crust benath the wind slab that acted as an effective sliding surface.  

    The key to avoiding this problem will be anticipating where these slabs may exist and being able to visually and tactilely identify them.  To anticipate their potential location imagine what slopes would be stripped and which ones be loaded by a NE wind in the area you are travelling.  Terrain can have a big impact on wind direction, so also look for surface clues on the snow for previous wind direction.  Fresh wind lips point towards lee slopes and eroded snow faces point towards previous wind direction.  Wind slabs will have a rounded smooth look or a rippled texture.  They will also have a hollow drum like feel at this point.  

    The sensitivity of wind slabs is expected to be decreasing, but reactive pockets may still exist, especially where they overlie a melt freeze crust.

    (4/1/2025)

    Skier triggered avalanche on a wind loaded NW aspect of Iguana Backs Nose.  Skier was caught, carried and partially buried.  No injuries. 50 meters wide X 150 meters track, 6-12 inches deep.

    SS-ASu-R1-D1.5 

    Photo: Chris Tonozzi

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    For 2 weeks, we have been tracking a layer of buried surface hoar covered by 2 feet of snow near the coast that decreases to only 4 inches at the far northern end of our forecast area. In our core forecast area we have been finding this layer to be unreactive.  Formal snow pits and hasty pits continue to show a layer at the 3/16 new/old interface that consists of highly deformed facets(healing) that are mixed with other grain types that consist of rounds.  Where this setup exists triggering an avalanche at this layer is unlikely.

    We are continuing to talk about this layer due to observations that continue to come in from helicopter operations that are finding this layer much more intact and reactive in stability tests as recently as 3/29, East of Marshall Pass.  Even though this terrain is well outside our forecast area, we want users to be aware of the potentially dangerous setup if they are planning to travel to more remote zones.

    Buried surface hoar can persist and remain active for an extended period. Any area where well-preserved crystals are found below the overlying slab may be capable of producing avalanches for quite some time. Remain diligent and assess the snowpack on a slope-by-slope basis in remote or unfamiliar terrain.  Natural settlement of the overlying slab, temperature increase, and wind can all increase cohesion, which can increase the sensitivity of this weak layer where it is present.  Additional snowfall later this weak has the potential to increase the sensitivity of this layer where it exists.

     

     

     

    (3/19/2025)

     Natural avalanche in the books that likely failed on 3/16 BSH

    Photo: Eagan Gleasson

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    This is the time of year when wet loose avalanche hazard should be in the back of our minds every day we go out.  Aspect, time of day, and moisture in the surface snow are all important things to pay attention to in order to avoid wet loose hazards.

    The day will begin with a low likelihood for wet loose activity as most areas have received an overnight freeze that has formed a crust.  As the sun warms up slopes, these crusts will break down and wet loose activity will become possible.  This process will happen quicker in the Maritime zone as temperatures at sea level remain above freezing overnight.  The degree of wet loose activity may be limited by clouds forecasted to roll in later this afternoon.  

    Steep slopes that are perpendicular to the sun are the most prone to wet loose failure.  Rocky terrain will be the first to react as the rocks absorb the suns' energy and transmit it into the surrounding snow.

    Pay attention to the effect the sun has on the snow surface.  Avoid exposure to steep terrain with wet snow during the heat of the day, this includes the terrain above you, not just the slope you are travelling on.

    (3/30/2025)

    Wet loose activity that originated from rocks that warmed the surface snow quicker than the surrounding slope

    Photo: Gareth Brown

Avalanche Discussion

Observed Avalanche Activity last 72 hours: 

Human triggered D1.5 avalanche on a W/NW aspect of the nose of Iguana Backs. SS-ASu-R1-D1.5

Human triggered D2 avalanche on a south aspect at mid elevations of Loveland Basin. SS-ASu-R2-D2

D2 wet loose activity on steep south facing terrain of Mile High and Town Mountain.

Forecast Discussion:

With Thompson Pass being extremely busy this time of year, great weather, and excellent travel conditions, users will be accessing terrain that is outside of the core forecast area.  It is strongly advised for users to remain diligent and be suspect of the snowpack when traveling into new zones and valleys.  Cornice fall is a major concern this time of year and can produce full depth avalanches in extreme terrain.  Avoiding cornices is highly reccommended.

A short lived North wind event on 3/31 has increased the distribution, depth and chances of triggering a wind slab avalanche.  These exist in specific areas and are more concentrated in the typical windy places such as upper elevations along the road corridor and terrain in close proximity to the Thompson Pass gap.  

We continue to look for the 3/16 buried surface hoar layer and results repeatedly show this interface to be unreactive and broken down in our forecast area.  When traveling to remote zones users are encouraged to look at the interface of the most recent snowfall to see if preserved buried surface hoar exists.  

Steep solar rocky slopes that hang above a lot of our steep NW-NE facing ramp terrain is beginning to shed.  Keep your eyes open if climbing up where debris is channeled in the gut of these runs.  try to time your run so that the rocks above are not in direct sun.  Keep in mind that these slopes become the most active when the sun is perpendicular to them

Additional Information:

Watch out for cornices. A couple of cornice falls have been observed in the Continental region.

A weather and snowpack season history is available by clicking on the Season Summary tab which is located below the bottom line statement once you have entered the full forecast.

Season Snowfall Data

Location 24 hour Snowfall Inches- 4/1 24 hour Snow Water Equivalent Inches Height of Snow April Snowfall Inches Season Total Snowfall Valdez    0    0    45     0 N/O     Thompson Pass    0    0   N/O     0    ~500 Nicks    0    0    134    0 N/O 46 Mile    0     0   18    0 N/O

Regions covered