Avalanche forecast

San Francisco Peaks / Kachina Peaks Wilderness

Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The avalanche danger is moderate to considerable at elevations above 10,500'. Human-triggered avalanches will be possible to likely on recently wind-loaded slopes. Steep wind-drifted, smooth and rounded, pillowed, or corniced slopes will be areas where an avalanche could be triggered. Generally, low avalanche hazard exists below 10,500'. Watch for unstable snow in very steep and isolated pockets. 

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Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    To avoid this problem, steer clear of wind-loaded, wind-drifted, smooth and rounded, pillowed, or corniced slopes. Retreat from steep slopes where cracking layers of firm snow overlay softer snow. Wind slab avalanches may release naturally during wind events and can be triggered for up to a week after a wind event. They form in lee and cross-loaded terrain features. Avoid them by sticking to wind-sheltered or wind-scoured areas.

Avalanche Discussion

11 AM update. Observations this morning and a human-triggered large avalanche at 10am has KPAC updating the above treeline forecast to considerable.  Human triggered avalanches above treeline are likely. KPAC used binoculars to inspect many slopes on Thursday, March 23. Wind loading was noted near/above treeline. No evidence of avalanches was observed. Recent wind/storm slabs on Thursday were generally stubborn, and less sensitive than Wednesday. Arizona Snowbowl Ski Patrol had no unstable results after using significant explosives inbounds on Thursday. Small cornices have formed on some hard-to-access ridgelines and some small cornice collapses near Schultz Peak were noted on Thursday. Significant rime ice coats many surfaces on southerly aspects above/near treeline. 

In general, the new snow has poor to fair structure and moderate to good strength. There was one test on Wednesday below treeline (NW aspect) with propagation (ECTP11) under a soft storm/wind slab. More tests on Thursday indicated no propagation. 

The weather yesterday limited a full set of observations and backcountry travelers are encouraged to evaluate snow and terrain carefully with their partners. Before committing to slopes steeper than 30°, discuss the snowpack and how the recent weather is affecting it. And be aware of the consequences of your terrain choices. Several folks have mentioned that this is the best coverage they have ever seen in 25-45 years of touring around Flagstaff. It's been an amazing year with no reported backcountry injuries or burials. Backcountry touring is an amazing thing, but it is serious business. Stay diligent and aware. Only expose one person at a time to avalanche terrain, and be aware of other groups in avalanche terrain. 

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