Confidence
Fair - Due to variable weather conditions
Weather Forecast
A continued low over the Gulf of Alaska will whirl a series of convective and synoptic systems into the southern part of the province, bringing remnants of those systems to the northern regions. The bulk of the precipitation will arrive Thursday, with continued bands of fast moving clouds, light precipitation and sunny breaks later Friday into Saturday. Thursday: Snow amounts 10-20 cm. Ridgetop winds light from the SW, gusting into moderate. Alpine temperatures -3, freezing levels near 1500 m during the day then dropping to 1000 m at night. Friday: Snow amounts 5-10 cm. Ridgetop winds moderate from the South. Freezing levels near 1300 m, then falling to valley bottom at night. Saturday: Occasional light flurries and cloud cover. Sunny breaks expected with intense solar radiation during those times. Freezing levels are expected to 1000 m.
Avalanche Summary
Natural avalanche activity seemed to have tapered off, with the exception of active solar aspects in the afternoon. Numerous small loose wet avalanches were reported on Southerly slopes up to size 1.5. On Monday several large natural solar induced cornice releases were reported. These occurred on NW-NE slopes from 2000 m- 2400 m. To note, none of theses cornice falls stepped down to the deeply buried persistent weak layer. I wouldn't rule out the potential, as we saw that layer reactive only 4 days ago. Numerous loose wet avalanches were also reported on Monday on various aspects, running up to size 2. This could continue in your local mountains if the sun pokes through the clouds over the next few days. On Saturday three, size 3 natural avalanches were observed in steep, rocky, unsupported terrain. They occurred between 2000-2800m on north to east aspects and are suspected to have run on the February persistent weak layer.
Snowpack Summary
Recently formed variable wind slabs exist in the alpine, treeline, and open areas below treeline. These can be found on lee slopes, and behind terrain features. Over the past several days, spring-like conditions have influenced the snowpack. Solar radiation has led to moist surfaces on sun exposed slopes up to ridgetop, other aspects moist below 1500 m with crust recovery developing at night. Cornices have grown large and have become unstable; they may act as a large trigger on slopes below. A well settled, consolidated slab overlies a persistent weak layer that was buried in early February. Now 1-2 m below the surface, these weaknesses include surface hoar, facets or crusts. Concern still exists potentially for deep and destructive releases at this interface. This may be a low probability, high consequence problem that may require a large trigger.
Problems
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Cornices
Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.
Deep Persistent Slabs
Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.