Avalanche forecast

San Francisco Peaks / Kachina Peaks Wilderness

Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The avalanche danger has dropped to low.  Low Danger does not mean no danger. Although unlikely it may still be possible for a skier or rider to trigger a large persistent slab avalanche on steep terrain near and above treeline on north slopes.  These avalanches can release without warning and would probably be triggered in shallow areas where basal facets are susceptible to the weight of a skier or rider.  

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1.5–2

    The weak layers and basal facets in or near the bottom of the snowpack are still present, in some areas.  On more solar aspects, they are starting to round, and in other, more northerly aspects, they continue to grow. This basal weak layer caused some of the larger slides in the avalanche cycle more than three weeks ago.  An avalanche of this type is most likely to be triggered on steep north facing slopes in areas of thinner snowpack.  Although it is unlikely that a skier or rider will trigger this type of avalanche, if they did, the avalanche could be large and easily cause a full burial. 

    Crown in Silverton path. 

    Photo: Paul Dawson

Avalanche Discussion

Most stability tests and observations show that the snowpack has become increasingly stable and that, overall, the avalanche hazard has decreased. It is challenging to determine the continuity of this problem. We have removed the persistent slab problem from east and west aspects but basal facets remain on those aspects. Propagation has not been reported in snow pits in those aspects but any additonal new load by new or wind blown snow could reinvigorator these layers.  It may be that in some locations, it lacks the consistency to trigger an avalanche, and in others, it may be dormant but could resurrect given another large storm.  And, of course, finally, in some locations, especially steep and rocky zones, there is the chance that it could still be triggered by a skier or rider.   Again, this represents the classic low probability but high consequence scenario.

In general, conditions across the peaks are highly variable; some soft but not deep skiing can be found (3-5").  Southly aspects are in a melt freeze cycle and steep northerly are holding cold snow. The winds have removed snow from high elevation areas on the exterior of our old stratovolcano, as seen in the Allison clay photo below. However in the sunken caldera coverage remains as seen in the cirque photos.

Avalanches continue to be found from our last big storm cycle. For recent observations, click here.  

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