Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Dangerous avalanche conditions continue to exist as new snow and strong winds have built slabs on top of weak faceted snow. The most dangerous slopes will be near and above treeline on the leeward sides of ridgelines and cross-loaded terrain features where weak layers are 1 to 2 feet down.  It's possible to remotely trigger avalanches from a distance away. Give wind drifted slopes a wide berth, avoiding slopes that are actively loading. Even a smaller wind slab avalanche has the potential to step down into deeper weak layers creating a larger and more destructive avalanche. Sticking to lower angle and more wind-sheltered terrain at lower elevations will provide safer riding options. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Recent snow and strong winds have built cohesive slabs on top of a variety of weak facet layers and depth hoar that formed during multiple long drought periods. These slabs are at least a foot deep in many places especially near and above treeline. The most likely weak layer these avalanches will fail on formed during the february dry period before Valentines Day and are 1 to 2 feet below the surface.  With a shallow and weak snowpack, even a peristent slab avalanche has the possibility of stepping down into deeper weak layers close to the ground.  It's possible to trigger an avalanche from the flats below or a distance away. 

    Stiffer slabs have formed on top of weak faceted layers and depth hoar. The most concerning layer formed during the dry period to start February. Depth hoar and other faceted layers exist closer the ground.

    (2/18/2026) Photo: Andy Bond

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Strong winds over the last couple of days have drifted snow and built wind slabs at upper elevations. With such strong winds, these slabs may extend further down the slope. Look for stiffening snow underfoot and round-shaped features on the surface that may feel hollow or drummy. Any wind-slab avalanche triggered has the potential to step down into deeper weak layers, leading to a larger and more dangerous avalanche.

    Big wind gusts easily transporting snow across a ridgeline during intense winds on 02/17.  Look out for thickening and stiffening wind slabs on the lee side of ridgelines like this one.

    Photo: Charlie Harrison

Avalanche Discussion

It's been a windy last couple of days (gusts in the 50 to 80 mph range) with a little bit of snow finally mixed in.  Yesterday brought 4 to 6 inches of snow with about 0.45" of snow water equivalent (SWE).  Snow totals over the last week are 9 to 14 inches with 1 to 1.3" of SWE. Today will be a lull between storm systems bringing sunny skies, cold temperatures and more reasonable moderate winds. The third and final system pushes into the area tonight into Friday bringing another round of strong winds and some snow. 

None of these storms on their own has been the big show stopper like areas in CA, UT and CO are getting, but in it's totality, between snow and wind, slopes are getting loaded and stressing a shallow and weak faceted snowpack. Visibility hasn't been great the last couple of days, but it doesn't appear that we've reached the tipping point just yet for a widespread natural avalanche cycle. With more snow and wind in the forecast for Friday, we may get there. Even if we don't see this natural cycle, slopes are primed right now to be triggerred by us.

In travels yesterday, strong winds were transporting snow into harder more supportable slabs with cracking and collapsing not always present. With such strong winds, snow was drifting further down slopes on the leeward sides of ridgelines and I wouldn't be surprised to see avalanches break mid-path. Below treeline, it's a little bit of a different story as cohesive slabs are harder to find. Winds over the last two days have been upsloping and stripping many areas in the woods but also depositing it on others. Steep open more exposed terrain, is where you're most likely to find cohessive slabs. The snowpack at these lower elevations is mainly completely faceted throughout and avalanches could fail closer to the ground.   

The skiing and riding has improved especially in more wind sheltered areas. If you're getting out, keep it simple, sticking to lower angle more wind-sheltered terrain will keep it fun, but also provide safer turns. With more snow and strong winds in the forecast tonight into Friday, expect dangerous avalanche conditions to continue into the weekend.  

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