Avalanche forecast

West Slopes North

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 7 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Expect wet avalanches somewhere in the zone—we just don’t know where or how widespread they’ll be. If the surface snow is sticky and wet, avalanches are more likely. Avoid steep slopes and move quickly through runouts and gullies, especially if you see natural activity. If crusts are at or near the surface, avalanche activity should be limited.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    In the Baker backcountry, a group staying up there for the week while the highway is closed reported large natural wet loose avalanches in Bagley Basin starting midday Tuesday. Meanwhile, on the north side of Mt. Baker, an observer found just a couple inches of moist snow over a strong crust, with little recent wet avalanche activity.

    Clouds are expected Tuesday night through Wednesday morning, with some afternoon sun possible. Freezing levels will climb above 10,000 ft. With highly variable conditions, uncertain cloud cover, and limited observations, it’s hard to predict how the snow will respond.

    You’ll need to assess conditions as you travel Wednesday. Rollerballs or natural avalanches are clear signs to avoid steep terrain and runout zones. If the snow feels wet and mushy and you’re sinking several inches, wet avalanches are possible even if you don’t see activity—steep terrain is best avoided. Where crusts remain near the surface, avalanche activity is less likely.

    If full sun breaks through, expect rapid warming on steep south-facing slopes and possible large wet avalanches that could run far downhill.

    Example photo: Large and destructive wet loose avalanches may still happen on Wednesday. 

Avalanche Discussion

We just received a report of a very large natural slab avalanche (media gallery) that likely occurred during peak instability a couple days ago on the south side of Forbidden Peak, in the far southeast corner of the zone. This likely failed on an underlying weakness near the crust that was buried on Jan 28. We don't expect a human to trigger an avalanche on this layer, but a smaller avalanche or cornice fall may initiate an avalanche like this. We suspected that there could be lingering weaknesses near the crust further east in the zone, and this confirms our suspicions. 

At lower elevations, where there's only a few inches of snow or less over the stout crust, danger is Low- except in runouts like gullies or other terrain that is beneath large overhead paths holding deep snow. This stout crust, given the recent soggy weather, might be breaking down at these lower elevations as well, but even if it's soft, it's well adjusted to moisture so we don't expect it to avalanche. 

Regions covered