Avalanche forecast

Stevens Pass

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 4 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Expect another warm day on Monday with a poor overnight refreeze of the snow surface. You could potentially trigger avalanches on steep slopes in weak, wet snow. Cornices are sagging, shedding, and may fail. Avoid lingering under these overhung features.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Sunday night may be the third night in a row without a significant refreeze of the upper snowpack, and you may encounter areas of unsupportive, weak snow. Light rain may hasten the softening of the snow surfaces, quickly breaking down any thin surface crusts formed overnight. If you sink into wet snow up to your boot-tops, it might be time to move to lower angle slopes. Slopes that may have stayed firm at the highest elevations could melt and become weak. Consider the consequences of a cornice fall during warm weather. We've received multiple recent observations of large, broken cornices in neighboring zones.Slopes below 4,000ft have seen significant transformation and melting. Elsewhere, the snowpack is still transitioning to melt forms which adds uncertainty during this prolonged warm weather. 

    (3/23/2022) Numerous wet loose avalanches occurred above Lake Susan Jane on March 21st. NE-N, 4800-5,600ft. Photo: Josh Hirshberg

Avalanche Discussion

Warm temperatures and rain since March 21st brought a widespread cycle of wet avalanches (to size D2) early last week. Continued warm temperatures further transitioned the upper snowpack to melt forms, especially below treeline on sun-exposed slopes. Much of the snowpack below the surface remains as rounds, especially near and above treeline and on northerly aspects.

While avalanches are unlikely on the March 8th facets, observers noted signs of instability in the middle of the month on northerly aspects above 5,500ft. Video examples below are now more than a week old. If you see similar warning signs, stick to lower-angle terrain. More recently, this layer (about 2 feet below the snow surface) has likely gained strength through rounding, and it may have even gotten moist. A cornice falling in the wrong place could possibly involve this older layer.

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