Avalanche forecast

Moab

Utah Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

  • Alpine
  • Treeline
  • Below treeline
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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

A MODERATE avalanche danger exists on steep slopes near and above treeline that face NW-N-E andhuman-triggered avalanches failing on a persistent weak layer remain POSSIBLE. There may also be a few outlying areas on steep slopes facing W and SE at upper elevations.

The avalanche danger is mostly LOW below treeline and on most southerly aspects.

Conditions remain thin and rocks, stumps, and dead fall still pose a significant hazard.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2

    Poor snowpack structure remains with a dense, cohesive slab over top of weak, faceted snow, but it's becoming harder to trigger an avalanche. In my travels yesterday, primarily below treeline, I performed multiple stability tests with no results. Areas where you are most likely to trigger an avalanche are on steep slopes near and above treeline that face NW-N-E. There may be some outlying problem areas on upper elevation W and SE aspects. If you decide to step out into this kind of terrain, choose planar slopes without complex terrain features. Avoid likely trigger points such as steep convexities, or shallow points along slope margins or near rock outcrops. Personally, I'm not yet branching into this kind of terrain. It's still early in the season, and I'm just not quite ready to trust it knowing what's under there.

    Photo illustrates the poor structure that still exists. This test below treeline on a west aspect produced no results.

Special Announcement

We have some events coming up to kick off the winter season:

Saturday, December 7 - 17th Annual Utah Snow and Avalanche Workshop (USAW) - Information and tickets available here.

Saturday, December 14 - 3rd Annual UAC Moab/LUNA Winter Kickoff Party, 6 PM at the MARC. Information and tickets available here.

Geyser Pass Road: The La Sal Loop Road will be closed above Pack Creek Monday-Friday from 8:30 to 5:30 for construction through December 18. Access to the Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead will be from Castle Valley or Sand Flats Road during these hours. Click here for more information.

Recent Activity

In my travels to the north group yesterday I came across these slides from the Nov 27 cycle in upper Miner's Basin. These are the types of avalanches you can still trigger.

Snow and Weather

6 A.M. Snow and Weather Data

24 Hour Snow: 0" 72 Hour Snow: 0" Season Total Snow: 44" Depth at Gold Basin: 24"

Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: NW 0-5 mph Temp: 20° F Percent of Normal (SWE): 192%

Weather

Look for continued sunny skies, light NE winds, and high temps in the low 30's.

General Conditions

The snowpack is settling and adjusting to last week's load and the avalanche danger continues to ease. Conditions remain remarkably good all things considered. Surface snow on shady aspects remains dry and powdery. It's actually becoming looser and weaker as it recrystallizes into near surface facets but it makes for good turning and riding. There's also a fair bit of surface hoar about. These surfaces will undoubtedly become future weak layers. The stiff slab formed by the incredibly dense snow that fell on Nov 27 is still holding up, and in spite of the shallow cover, you can ride above many of the buried obstacles.

Snowpack and Weather Data

Snowpack Observations

Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')

SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')

Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')

NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.

All things considered, snow cover is remarkably good for early December.

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General Announcements

This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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