Avalanche forecast

Northwest Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Avalanche conditions remain tricky around Crested Butte.  Slopes that harbor old snow from early season storms, northwest through north through east aspects, present a significant risk for you to trigger an avalanche.  If you travel on these suspect aspects, select slopes around 30 degrees or less without steep terrain above to reduce your risk of avalanches.  Stepping into steep terrain, on the north half of the compass, near and above the treeline is a dangerous 'roll of the dice'.  You can find safer options below 10,500 feet or on southerly-facing slopes.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    You will find a fragile base to the snowpack on northerly and easterly aspects from the early seasonal snowfall that accumulated back in October.  Storms during the second half of November deposited up to 2 feet of snow on top of these Persistent Weak Layers.  Observations from last weekend included natural avalanches, collapses, shooting cracks, and remotely-triggered avalanches.  Slopes near and above treeline are the most conerning for human-triggered avalanches as slabs are widespread above known weak layers.  Elevations below around 10,500 feet have the same weak layers, but slabs are much less common thus making avalanches less likely.  You can manage the problem by avoiding aspects highlighted above, by selecting lower angled terrain without steeps slopes directly above, or carefully assessing terrain at lower elevations for the abscence of a slab.

    This persistent slab avalanche was remotely triggered from below on Purple Ridge. 11/26

Avalanche Discussion

The current avalanche conditions on the north half of the compass are quite tricky right now.  As time increases from the loading event this past weekend, signs of instability like cracking and collapsing decrease.  Do not be fooled by the decrease in signs of instability; slabs and weak layers near and above treeline have changed very little since the weekend.  The decrease in signs of instability underfoot may try to lure you into suspect terrain.  If you dont experience signs of instability underfoot, simply use your eyes to see the recent avalanche activity; it's hard to miss at upper elevations.  The pattern of avalanche activity is obvious in the avalanche database.  Take a look at this link with visual tools diagraming the recent avalanche cycle.  Slopes facing northwest through north through east produced the majority of avalanches.  Expect the potential for human-triggered avalanches to linger for days into the future, the problem will not go away quickly at upper elevations.

Take a patient mindset into the mountains and select conservative slope angles on slopes facing the north half of the compass above 10,500 feet.  If you're looking for steeper terrain options, southerly-facing slopes generally offer safer options.  The snowpack is shallower at lower elevations and on sunny slopes which presents an increased risk of hitting buried objects while you travel.  Take it easy as our mountains build up a deeper snowpack.  

Regions covered