Avalanche forecast

Provo

Issued Feb 25, 2024valid to Feb 26, 2024Utah Avalanche Center

Avalanche danger

Alpine
Treeline
Below treeline

Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Today, the avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE across upper-elevation slopes facing east and southeast and MODERATE across south, southwest, and west aspects, as well as mid-elevation aspects facing east, southeast, south, and southwest, where triggering a persistent weak layer avalanche that breaks to a crust with faceted snow 1-3 feet deep is possible. Additionally, there is a MODERATE avalanche danger across all upper-elevation terrain for stubborn of wind-drifted snow.

On slopes facing southwest through south and southeast, the avalanche danger may rise to MODERATE as the snow surface heats up, potentially leading to small wet-loose avalanches on solar aspects. The remaining aspects have a LOW avalanche danger.

It's crucial to carefully evaluate snow and terrain today, identifying potential hazards, as human-triggered avalanches are possible.

Avalanche problems

Persistent Slabs
N
NE
E
SE
S
SW
W
NW
Alpine
Treeline
Below treeline
Likelihood
Possible
Size
2
On specific ‘solar’ slopes, particularly those facing east and southeast, there is a persistent weak layer (PWL) of facets just above a crust buried by storms beginning February 14. As the warm weather and clear skies persist, the likelihood of triggering an avalanche on this layer will continue to decrease, and the facets will begin to heal. However, as demonstrated by this week's avalanche activity, including the massive avalanche on Mill Hiller on Thursday, we have not reached that point yet. I'm addressing this issue by avoiding these slopes and opting for northerly-facing slopes where the snow quality is superior.

Mark discusses the avalanche problem primarily isolated to the East and southeast-facing aspects.

While we are considering shrinking this avalanche problem, as it appears to be primarily isolated to southeast through east-facing aspects, there is still a chance of encountering this layering and issue on western-facing slopes.
Wind Slabs
N
NE
E
SE
S
SW
W
NW
Alpine
Treeline
Below treeline
Likelihood
Possible
Size
2
With increasing winds before the next front, stubborn slabs of wind-drifted snow are likely to be encountered on all upper-elevation slopes and some mid-elevation terrain features that allow for drifting snow accumulation. Some of these wind drifts may be reactive if they formed on top of graupel. The graupel layers vary, but they can often be found below steeper cliff bands where graupel can accumulate.

These drifts could be 1-3 feet deep and up to 150 feet wide. Watch out for signs of wind-drifted snow, such as pillow-shaped deposits, and avoid those slopes. Any recent wind drifts were covered by snowfall Wednesday night, so you will need to dig down to search for them. Outside the wind zone, on shaded aspects, there is still soft snow. As you step into steeper terrain, remember that even a loose-dry avalanche can travel far and entrain a lot of snow, especially in areas that may have graupel. Consider an exit plan and safe sluff management.
Loose Wet
N
NE
E
SE
S
SW
W
NW
Alpine
Treeline
Below treeline
Likelihood
Possible
Size
2
The elevated winds should keep the wet snow at bay today, but with such strong sunshine and warm temperatures, there is still the potential to trigger wet-loose avalanches on steep, sunny slopes. If temperatures really heat up on mid and upper elevation slopes facing southeast, any wet avalanches may trigger larger slab avalanches, resulting in failure on the persistent weak layer (PWL).

Wet snow is the easiest avalanche problem to avoid; simply move to shady slopes once the snow surface becomes wet. Look for signs that the snow surface is becoming wet, such as rollerballs and pinwheels.

Special Announcement

Join the UAC and Inspired Summit Adventures for the grand opening of our new Transceiver Training Park at Pinebrook, Sunday, February 25, from 3:00-6:00PM.

Recent Activity

No new avalanche activity has been reported from the Provo area, despite people beginning to venture into much steeper terrain. In the central Wasatch, yesterday's avalanche activity included long-running dry-loose avalanches within the ski resorts and backcountry, as well as some smaller slab avalanches of wind-drifted or new snow that could have failed on the 2/14 facets. However, these observations were made from a distance, so they are not confirmed. On Red Baldy, one rider was caught and carried in a large dry-loose avalanche that broke approximately 6 inches deep at its deepest point. See photo below.

Red Baldy avalanche - find detailed report HERE.

On Thursday evening, a very large avalanche occurred on Miller Hill in American Fork Canyon. One or two people were likely caught in the avalanche. However, they were gone when the second group arrived and conducted a beacon search to ensure no one was buried. Mark Staples visited the avalanche Friday; it was approximately 1,500 feet wide and 2 feet deep, and it broke on a layer of faceted snow above a crust.

Snow and Weather

This morning, under clear skies temperatures range from the upper 20s F to low 30s F. The westerly winds have begun to pick up overnight, averaging 10-15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph at mid-elevations, and gusts near 45 mph at upper elevations

Today will be another day of strong sunshine, with temperatures warming into the low 40s F at upper elevations and the upper-40s F at low and mid-elevations. Winds will remain from the west-southwest and continue to increase throughout the day, averaging 15-20 mph and gusting up to 25 at mid-elevations, with gusts near 45 mph at upper elevations

Outlook: On Monday, strong winds will start blowing as a new storm system approaches. This storm will be colder than recent ones and will bring heavy snow starting on Monday, mainly in the southwest. The snow levels will stay high, and the snow will be wet due to the direction of the wind. By early Tuesday, the storm front will pass through, bringing strong winds, heavy snow, and a quick drop in temperature. There might even be lightning near the front. Snow will continue on Tuesday, gradually easing off by Tuesday night, as the wind shifts to the northwest. This next storm could bring 8-16 inches of snow to the Provo area.

Riding conditions remain excellent in the backcountry, although solar slopes may now have developed a firm crust this morning due to days of strong sun.

General Announcements

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

Observations and Avalanches

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