Avalanche forecast

Elkhorns

Wallowa Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

 It is possible that you could trigger a wind slab avalanche today.  Wind slabs will primarily be found at mid and upper elevations and all aspects are on the table.  Backcountry travelers should look for snow not affected by the wind to avoid the problem and find better riding quality.  

 

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Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2
    • An observer yesterday found isolated cracking in windslabs up to 10" thick, which could create an avalanche big enough to bury, injure or kill you.  However, the lack of observed avalanches or propagating pit results suggests that the likelihood of these is lower.  
    • These slabs include weaker grains on and roughly 6" above the Thanksgiving Drought layer.  Tests indicate that these are rounding and gaining strength, but it is unknown whether they could produce a human-triggered avalanche today.  

    Isolated cracking around skis as I filled in my pits. Slab was approx 20cm thick

    Photo: Karen Morse

Avalanche Discussion

Today will be a similarly cloudy day to yesterday, although probably warmer in the mountains with less windchill.  With little weather change, expect minimal change in the avalanche danger as well, with a trend towards improving stability.  What has changed is our understanding of the snowpack, and with observers in the North, South Wallowas and Elkhorns yesterday finding many stubborn to unreactive windslabs, we have a better sense of their distribution and sensitivity.  There are still plenty of places we haven't visited.  Although we are finding the Thanksgiving Drought layer strengthening, it is still there and could result in a slab avalanche 1-2' thick. 

One of our Pro Observers/educators got out near Anthony Lakes Ski Area and documented the snowpack on northerly and southerly aspects.  The Thanksgiving Drought layer was 1-2' down and although there were weaker grains, this layer did not produce any propagation or results indicating instability.   Having this repeated three times adds to the strength of her findings, and as a community, we can gain confidence in our understanding of the snowpack through more data points.  On her tour, she did observe limited blowing snow, but not enough to add to existing windslabs or form new ones.  She saw fresher wet loose slides at lower elevations by the highway, highlighting the recent warmup. 

Large surface hoar exists at northerly upper elevations, which may be a concern if it gets buried by snow rather than rain as our next system arrives tomorrow.  Days like this one, with mixed riding quality, can be good days to practice digging pits or practicing companion rescue skills.  Thanks for the observation details and photos, Karen.  

If there are breaks in the cloud cover today and with rising freezing levels, small wet loose avalanches may occur on solar aspects below treeline.  

If you are visiting the area or took some time away from reading the forecast, take a look at the Conditions Blog (next to Weather and above the Dange Scale triangle).  How did our snowpack get here? 

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