Avalanche forecast

West Slopes South

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

A solid overnight freeze should help keep the snowpack generally stable and the avalanche danger low on Tuesday. Watch for isolated pockets of wet weak snow around cliffs and rocks as the sun softens the surface later in the day.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    Slopes receiving direct sunshine should soften on Tuesday. As the day wears on, this could create a few pockets of wet unstable snow. You’re most likely to see this in thinner spots in the snowpack like near cliffs and rocks. If you encounter punchy wet snow or see new rollerballs, be leery of similar steep slopes. A strong overnight freeze and an underlying crust should limit the size of these possible avalanches. However, even small avalanches can hurt you in terrain traps where they push you over a cliff or into a creek.

    (2/5/2022)

    Weak wet surface snow in a thinner snowpack were found on Saturday. Similar conditions could exists Tuesday. 

    Photo: Dallas Glass

Avalanche Discussion

Mostly clear skies should allow any wet snow from Monday to freeze overnight creating a strong crust. High thin clouds and a light breeze may slightly delay the softening of the surface, but eventually, the sun should win. This more spring-like cycle will help limit the avalanche danger and result in generally stable conditions. 

The snowpack is returning to a more aspect-driven state. On slopes receiving direct sunshine, melt-freeze cycles are producing spring-like snow. Any unstable layers should remain largely at the surface on these aspects. In shaded terrain, dry snow continues to persist despite warm and sunny weather. Even in this period of Low danger, you can still find weak layers on these slopes not receiving direct sunshine. Look for a layer of sugary facets often sandwiched between two crusts at the base of the recent snow. In areas near Paradise and White Pass, this is often 12-15” below the surface. In spots near Mt Adams and Mt St Helens, it may only be a few inches deep. This potential weak layer has not produced any known avalanches in the West South zone and snowpack test results have been very inconsistent. While that could change going forward, for the time being, we’ll just keep our eye on this layer. Below this Late January facet-crust sandwich a very strong and well-settled snowpack exists. We are not tracking any layers deeper in the snow at this time. 

Several wind events over the past week reshaped the snow surface, particularly at mid and upper elevations. While you may find a very isolated wind slab in higher complex terrain, they should be small and relatively thin. The biggest impact of the wind will be the variable surfaces you could encounter. In some locations, the wind scoured slopes back to the old crust and Late January facet-crust sandwich.  As a result, you may find breakable crusts, icy slopes, wet heavy snow, and settled dry powder as you travel.

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