Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Today we are dealing with a plethora of different avalanche problems.  Near and below treeline, new snow from yesterday's storm has left behind storm slabs that could be triggered at the old snow interface. Above treeline, strong winds yesterday evening have transported the new snow and built stiffer and more reactive wind slabs that you are likely to trigger if encountered.  It's also possible to trigger a persistent slab avalanche that fails on buried depth hoar or facets in the upper portions of the snowpack.

Pay attention to obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks or loud audible collapses, as these are indications you've found a strong over weak snowpack structure.  Any avalanche triggered could grow in size if it steps down into depth hoar layers deeper in the snowpack, taking with it most of the seasons' snowpack.  Avoid being underneath steep slopes, as it's possible to remotely trigger avalanches that break well above you.  Any avalanche triggered would lead to a nasty ride and could be big enough to injure or bury you.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Our first big storm in months dropped 15-18" of snow in the mountains and formed soft slabs atop near surface facets that developed during the dry and cold period preceding the storm.  In our travels yesterday these storm slabs were surprisingly reactive given the absence of strong winds concurrent with the storm, with some slopes sliding naturally under this setup.  These slabs should be slightly less reactive today now that the tap has turned off and they have sat overnight, but continue to watch for subtle stiffening of the snow underfoot as well as cracking and collapsing, as these slabs are still relatively fresh and will remain a factor today.  Any storm slab avalanche triggered today would be relatively small but could step down into deeper weak layers, leading to a larger and more destructive avalanche.

    Additionally, as temperatures warm up rapidly today under clear skies, expect a loose snow avalanche cycle to develop.  Most of the new snow near the surface is very low density and will respond quickly to today's increases in temperature and solar radiation.  Expect to easily trigger small loose snow sluffs in steeper terrain today, especialy wherever the sun is actively shining.  These avalanches will be very small but can potentially knock you off balance or push you into harm's way.

    Above treeline, the new snow has been subjected to a period of stronger winds that began yesterday afternoon and continued through the evening hours.  We are considering this situation separately as a wind slab problem, discussed in more detail below.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Persistent slab avalanches are a concern anywhere that a slab has formed on top of a snowpack that harbors buried weak layers. These widespread persistent weak layers - consisting mainly of depth hoar and faceted crusts - formed during the extended dry period from early November through late January.  These weak layers are incredibly weak and unable to hold significant weight.  While it is possible to trigger a persistent slab avalanche at lower elevations where a storm slab sits on top of the old snow, it is a greater concern at higher elevations where the wind has added even more weight in the form of a deeper and more cohesive wind slab.

    Pay attention to obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks and loud audible whumpfs as these are indications you've found a slab/weak layer combination. If you notice snow stiffening under foot or these bulls-eye clues of unstable snow, seek terrain under 30 degrees and avoid being on or connected to large slopes above you. The current setup we have lends itself to remotely triggering avalanches. This could mean you're able to trigger an avalanche breaking well above you.

    A shallow weak faceted snowpack will struggle to handle new snow. Persistent slab avalanches are likely to initially fail on the upper portions of the weak snow and could step down or gouge into the weak snow below.

    (1/28/2025) Photo: Charlie Harrison

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    The winds picked up noticeably yesterday afternoon at higher elevations for about 6 hours (20-30mph with gusts up to 58mph).  With so much low-density storm snow available for transport, expect to find deeper (2+ feet) and more cohesive wind slabs on leeward and cross-loaded terrain in the high alpine today.  Be on the lookout for smooth or rounded snow drifts and hollow-sounding snow underfoot if you head into above-treeline areas today, as you're likely nearing a dangerous wind slab avalanche setup. Choose wind-sheltered or wind-scoured terrain and don't try to play roulette with this particular snowpack setup.  Any wind slab avalanche triggered today would be dangerous on its own and could also step down into deeper weak layers, leading to a larger and more destructive avalanche.

Avalanche Discussion

The big storm we've all been waiting for finally came through and dropped about one and a half feet of low-density snow (0.7-0.85" SWE) in the Northern Sangres.  This turnout is a very welcome relief to the extended drought period that we've been entrenched in for the last few months, and while skiing and riding conditions aren't quite at the level of outstanding, they're definitely starting to improve.  That being said, this fresh blanket has obscured a lot of exposed obstacles and bare spots which will be very easy to hit in the coming days, so I recommend continuing to keep it fairly mellow if you get out.  The new snow will quickly start to settle as temperatures rise throughout the weekend and this should improve backcountry travel, even though the "blower powder" vibes will rapidly fade.

There's quite the multitude of avalanche problems to discuss today, so I'll try to keep it as simple as possible for those reading.  The snowstorm built soft storm slabs pretty much everywhere in the Northern mountains (and valleys). These slabs formed on top of weak near surface facets in a lot of places, and we found them to be quite reactive in the field yesterday where we encountered widespread cracking and collapsing, and spotted a few natural avalanches from this setup.  Today, these slabs will remain prevalent in the easiest zones to access as a backcountry traveler (below and near treeline terrain), so pay attention to them as you go.  We expect them to be less reactive today with the moisture tap turning off yesterday afternoon plus sitting overnight, but you should continue to look for telltale signs of instability in terrain near and below treeline that hasn't seen a lot of wind.  If you're finding cracking or collapsing in the upper snowpack while traveling around in the powder, this is a good sign that you'd have an easy time triggering a storm slab avalanche on a steep slope nearby.  Note also that the sun will be out today and temperatures will spike, driving an increased occurrence of loose snow avalanches releasing in the upper portions of the new snow near the surface.  These smaller sluffs aren't particularly dangerous but could knock you off balance or push you into harmful objects.

 

 

Things are a bit different above treeline, where the wind blew steadily in the 20-30mph range yesterday afternoon/evening and gusted up to nearly 60mph.  This is plenty of wind to transport the low-density new snow onto leeward terrain and build stiffer, more reactive slabs, and my goodness was there plenty of fresh fluff available for that to happen.  Expect to find 2 foot deep wind slabs at the higher elevations today on North and East aspects primarily.  Look for obvious wind-drifted pillows, smooth rounded surfaces, and stiffening or hollow-sounding snow underfoot if you're up on some of the higher ridgelines today.  These slabs will be more cohesive and reactive than the storm slabs at lower elevations, and they also carry the potential for larger and more destructive avalanches.  Do yourself a favor and steer clear of steep wind-loaded slopes today, as these are many of the most dangerous places to be right now.

Tying everything together is our persistent slab problem.  Throughout our snowpack, we've developed widespread weak layers below the surface in areas that held snow through the extended drought period from early November to late January.  Many slopes from NW-NE-E (plus the typical West-facing slopes along the Fraser-Wheeler ridgeline) have extremely developed depth hoar throughout a lot of the old snow, and others also harbor faceted crusts.  These persistent weak layers are incredibly weak but have predominantly lacked a slab until yesterday because we didn't see any significant snowstorms for over two months.  That pattern changed overnight yesterday with the storm, and now we have two different kinds of slabs out there that are sitting atop these weak layers and driving persistent slab avalanches.  The risk of triggering a persistent slab avalanche is greater at upper elevations, where yesterday's period of stronger winds has added additional weight and stress in the form of a more cohesive wind slab.  However, the potential also exists at lower elevations where we've still added some decent weight to the snowpack.  My advice to you today is to look consciously for the obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks and loud collapses and use them as a reminder to steer clear of avalanche terrain.  We still aren't at a point where very large and destructive avalanches are possible, but the current conditions lend themselves to remote triggering and any persistent slab avalanche triggered right now would definitely be large enough to bury or kill you. 

If you are getting out to check out the fresh powder and nice weather, go in with a conservative early season mindset.  We are still learning a lot about how our persistent weak layers are responding to changes as yesterday and today are the first "semi-significant" test they have faced.  It's still very much a shallow snowpack in many places out there with lots of rocks and ground hazards present.  Carefully evaluate the snowpack and err on the side of caution if you're uncertain about the stability of any slope.

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