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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 8th, 2015–Jan 9th, 2015

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Cariboos.

Diligence may be required to maintain conservative decisions in the face of fair weather and decent riding conditions over the weekend.

Confidence

Good

Weather Forecast

Mostly cloudy with a chance of light flurries Friday evening and Saturday, but generally dry for Sunday. Freezing levels remain in valley bottoms for the forecast period, with above freezing alpine temperatures expected for Friday. Winds should remain generally light and variable.

Avalanche Summary

Reports from Wednesday include numerous small natural loose snow and thin storm slab avalanches on steep sun-exposed slopes. One Size 2 80 cm deep persistent slab avalanche was accidentally triggered by a goat on a steep south aspect in the alpine... not sure if he got out...

Snowpack Summary

Recent storm snow has been redistributed into thick wind slab on lee slopes down to treeline elevations from moderate to strong westerly winds. Warm alpine temperatures have moistened the surface snow with a breakable surface crust forming on steep sun-exposed slopes. The mid-December surface hoar/crust persistent weak layer down 50-90 cm is still producing easy to moderate sudden planar test results at treeline elevations and below. Recent reports of whumpfing and the general nature of this weakness suggest it is susceptible to remote triggering and widespread propagation.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.