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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 21st, 2019–Mar 22nd, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Kootenay Boundary.

Natural avalanche activity is possible with the persistent warm temperatures.  Cornices are soft and weak. Avoid travel under, on or anywhere near cornices.

Confidence

Moderate -

Weather Forecast

The weather pattern begins to change Friday with increased cloud cover and falling freezing levels overnight. FRIDAY: Mix of sun and cloud. Freezing levels 3000 m with an alpine high of + 6 degrees. Ridgetop winds light from West.SATURDAY: Cloudy with light rain at lower elevations and light snow in the alpine. Freezing levels falling to 1700 m and alpine temperatures near -1. Ridgetop winds light from the southwest. SUNDAY: Cloudy with light rain at lower elevations and 5-10 cm of snow in the alpine. Freezing levels 1700 m and alpine temperatures near -1. Ridgetop winds light from the southwest.

Avalanche Summary

On Wednesday, natural loose wet avalanches continue on solar aspects up to size 2.5 through the region.Natural avalanche activity will likely taper off on the weekend when temperatures and freezing levels start to drop to seasonal norms.

Snowpack Summary

Currently, solar aspects are showing signs of melt by day and a freeze by night. Only the upper 10-20 cm is re-freezing into a solid crust which breaks down by noon. Most solar slopes at lower elevations are becoming isothermal. You can still find dry, wintery snow on North facing slopes in the alpine and variable wind effect remains. The bigger questions are deeper in the snowpack. Two crusts exist in the upper snowpack and the bond of the overlying snow is most concerning. The first crust is down 20 to 30 cm and loose wet avalanches have slid on this interface. The deeper one down 60-95 cm has also produced easy shears in test profiles and is potentially just waiting for enough heat to penetrate, creating a cohesive slab that may avalanche, if it does?

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.