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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 15th, 2014–Dec 18th, 2014

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Waterton Lakes.

The snowpack is gaining strength as it begins to refreeze following a major warm up. Caution and active investigation of the snowpack is still warranted in the Alpine. Below treeline the heating has reduced coverage from poor to really poor.

Weather Forecast

It looks like good weather for the period: mild temperatures: -10 to -3 at Little Prairie with thin cloud cover. The West wind will likely cause the biggest change to the snowpack and is very likely to redistribute the 10 to 20 cm available above the Dec 13 crust

Snowpack Summary

With heating and rain last week, the entire snowpack to at least 2200m went to zero degrees or became "isothermal" . As temperatures dropped over the weekend a surface crust formed that was thankfully buried by 10 to 20 cm of new snow. Beneath the crust the snowpack is now beginning to refreeze giving it considerable strength Treeline and below.

Avalanche Summary

Only minor loose dry activity with the new snow running over the surface crust has been seen.

Confidence

Due to the number and quality of field observations

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.