Avalanche forecast

Uintas

Utah Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

  • Alpine
  • Treeline
  • Below treeline
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger is found in the wind zone at and above treeline. Human triggered avalanches are LIKELY especially on slopes facing the north half of the compass and particularly those with an easterly component to their aspect.

Near treeline in mid elevation terrain, human triggered avalanches are possible on steep wind drifted slopes and the avalanche danger is MODERATE.

I know you're looking for Low avalanche danger and you can find it on lower and mid elevation terrain, especially slopes facing the south half of the compass and slopes less than 30 degrees in steepness, but you need to make sure there's no steep terrain above or adjacent to where you're riding. And remember- the Uinta's have lots of fun rolly-polly terrain and big open meadows.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    3

    Once triggered, today's avalanches will break deep and wide, taking out the entire seasons snowpack like Saturday's large avalanche near Moffit Peak which I discusses in the viddy above.

    Nothing has changed with the shaky foundation of our snowpack structure, but last weeks storm snow is settling, getting stronger, and becoming more comfortable in its own skin... and that's the good news. But the bad news is, our snowpack is a structural gong show and it just won't magically heal overnight. And without getting all sciencey and snow nerdy with y'all, let's think about it this way... imagine you're building a home with a weak foundation that doesn't get any stronger over time, yet we have to keep on the construction schedule and we keep adding additional, heavier, more dense floors on top - eventually the whole structure collapses and if we're underneath, it crashes down on top of us. Last weeks new snow and wind drifted snow added more floors to this unstable, house of cards structure. And while many slopes avalanched naturally, there's still many more that just wait for a trigger like us to roll along and knock the legs out from underneath.

    THIS AVALANCHE PROBLEM IS TRICKY - Tracks on a slope do not mean it's safe. As a matter of fact, as the snow gains strength it allows us to get well out onto the slope before it fails and it may be the 2nd, 3rd, or even 10th person on a slope who triggers the slide.

    And here's where the rubber hits the road... recent avalanche activity shows us that avalanches are unmanageably large and breaking to the dirt!

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2

    The image above illustrates how recent strong winds deposited fresh drifts well off the ridges, loading snow lower downslope than we expect to see.

    Both new and old wind drifts lurk on the leeward side of upper elevation ridges and around terrain terrain features like chutes and gullies.

    The main issue with slabs of wind drifted snow is... they increase the load and stress on buried persistent weak layers which elevates the likelihood of triggering a slide. Once triggered, a small wind drift can easily get out of hand if it breaks into weaker layers of snow, buried deeper in the snowpack. Your best strategy is to simply avoid fat rounded pieces of snow, especially if they feel or sound hollow like a drum.

Special Announcement

We are filled with grief to report four avalanche fatalities yesterday in the Wilson Glade of upper Mill Creek Canyon. The avalanche involved two separate parties. Our deepest condolences go out to the friends and families involved. Our deepest gratitude to the many members of SL County SAR, Wasatch Backcountry Rescue, Intermountain Lifeflight, the United States Forest Service, Utah Dept of Public Safety, along with Brighton, Solitude and Alta Ski Patrols for providing resources and support during this tragic accident. The avalanche path is on north facing terrain at 9800'. The avalanche is estimated to be 2-3' deep and at least 250' wide. Our preliminary report will be continually updated over the next several days

Recent Activity

Avy Pros Dave Kikkert and Cody Hughes, intentionally triggered this meaty, hard slab yesterday from low on the slope. Breaking a couple feet deep and failing on weak, midpack facets, you can clearly see the type of avalanche dragon that will not also boss you around... it will easily ruin your day.

Many large avalanches were triggered across the range this weekend including a near miss at Moffit Peak with an amazing viddy HERE.

Recent avalanche activity is found HERE.

More obs and trip reports found here.

Snow and Weather

Nowcast-

Clouds drape the mountains and a few scattered snow showers drift through the region adding to yesterday's inch or two that stacked up during the day. West and southwest winds increased right around dinnertime, blowing in the 30's and 40's through the night. Current temperatures register in the teens and mid 20's. Riding and turning conditions vastly improved with last weeks storm, but average snow depths clock in around 4' of total settled snow and the range looks more like early January.

Forecast-

Expect mostly cloudy skies with on and off snow showers. West and southwest winds blow steadily in the 30's. High temperatures climb into the low 30's.

Futurecast-

The graphic above tells the story of an active pattern setting its sights on our region. Light snow begins tonight, becoming heavy by early Friday morning. Looks like a good shot of snow and water with about a foot expected to stack up by late in the day.

Looking for real-time temps, snow, or wind?

Click here and then on the "western Uinta" tab for western Uinta specific, weather station network.

Additional Info

Last week, Andy, Joey, and I setup the avalanche beacon training park at the Nobletts trailhead. There is also one at the Bear River Trailhead that Ted Scroggin set up. These beacon parks have pre-buried beacons that you can turn on/off with a control panel. It only takes a few minutes to refresh your beacon searching skills at one of these places.

Mark will update this forecast by 7:00 AM tomorrow, Friday, February 12th.

Your observations are import, so please let me know what you're seeing... click HERE and contribute to this amazing community based program

General Announcements

If you see or trigger an avalanche or just wanna let me know what you're seeing you can reach me directly at 801-231-2170 or [email protected]

This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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