Avalanche forecast

Presidential Range

Mount Washington Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Expect dangerous conditions at upper and middle elevations with recent drifted snow in steep, terrain and cross loaded gullies. Drifted snow may release naturally in the steepest terrain, and is likely to avalanche from a human trigger. You could trigger avalanches 2-3 feet thick today that will easily bury a person. Slopes with wind drifted snow should be approached with caution. The avalanche danger today is CONSIDERABLE.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    The roughly 15 inches of snow from yesterday’s storm was affected by wind from two distinct directions and velocities. The bulk of the snow fell in the morning hours with strong east winds creating wind slabs that are reactive or stubborn to a human trigger and large based on the amount of snow involved. New slabs 2-3 feet thick or more are possible, and would result in a large avalanche if triggered. With slabs of this size, don’t bet your life on the chance that they will be stubborn. Assess these slabs carefully. Using the basic snow transport = wind slab concept, you can expect the largest slabs on primarily west facing aspects, though cross loading will occur behind the many rock buttresses in the eastern ravines.  

    Softer and more reactive wind slabs formed in the later half of the day after the wind shifted northeast will be found on southeast through southwest aspects.  There’s some uncertainty estimating the size of the softer slabs due to the question of how much snow remained for transport added to the light snow still falling.  

     

Avalanche Discussion

Today’s forecast comes with some level of uncertainty. The results of snow falling on an east wind depend on factors that include terrain topography and fetch for snow transport. For many of the west facing locations in our forecast area, that have an abrupt change in topography suitable to create wind turbulence and slab formation, the upwind fetch may include a mix of trees or even deep ravines that hold the snow. Further, we just don’t visit the western ravines often enough to see a pattern of slab development for a given set of weather events (we need public observations). Based on the amount of snow and wind direction, the big target areas for wind slab problems today would include Monroe Brook, the center of the Ammonoosuc Ravine, Great Gulf and even the south west facing slopes in Oaks Gulf. 

 

 

Your avalanche, snowpack, or weather observations are extremely valuable to the forecasters at MWAC. Help create a more accurate avalanche forecast by submitting your observations here. 

Listen to the weekly MWAC Outreach Podcast provided by Ski The Whites. Discussions include snowpack information, weekend outlook, and general avalanche related info. 

Thursday, February 4 @ 7PM - Avalanche Awareness with Al Mandel.Al Mandell of Acadia Mountain Guides joins us to chat live about Avalanche Awareness.  We hope you join us!

The Harvard Cabin is open for camping only with no entry allowed inside the cabin.

Please Remember:

  • Safe travel in avalanche terrain requires training and experience. This forecast is just one tool to help you make your own decisions in avalanche terrain. You control your own risk by choosing where, when, and how you travel.
  • Avalanche danger may change when actual weather differs from the higher summits forecast.

For more information contact the US Forest Service Snow Rangers, AMC visitor services staff at the Pinkham Notch Visitor Center, or the caretakers at Hermit Lake Shelters or seasonally at the Harvard Cabin (generally December 1 through March 31). The Mount Washington Ski Patrol is also available on spring weekends.

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