Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

New snow and swirling winds have built wind slabs near and above treeline that have formed on a variety of different surfaces and may not be bonding well to the older snow.  Today will bring a return of warm temperatures and the intense sun this time of year and we may see loose wet snow avalanches on steep solar aspects.  Any one of these smaller avalanches on the surface has the potential to step down into deeper weak layers creating a larger more destructive persistent slab avalanche.  The big concern continues to be faceted weak layers in the lower parts of the snowpack NW through E and SE aspects near and above treeline. Avoid steep wind drifted slopes and likely trigger points near rock outcrops and on the margins of the slabs as these are places you're most likely to impact deeper weak layers. Lower angle wind-sheltered northerly slopes will provide safer and better skiing and riding.    

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2

    Faceted weak layers from December deeper down in the snowpack continue to persist on NW through E and SE aspects near and above treeline. These weak layers are lingering typically in the bottom 60 cm of the snowpack with the January and February storm snow forming slabs on top of these weak layers.  Triggering one of these deeper weak layers may take finding the right slab/weak layer combination or where the overlying slab is thinner and weak layers are shallower.  It may not be the first, second, but may take the fifth person on a slope to find a "sweet spot" to get the slope to avalanche.  

    Avoid likely trigger points, near rock outcrops, steep convex rolls, and on the margins of the slab. Obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks and loud audible collapses most likely will not be present in travels and lure you into steeper terrain.  Using a probe pole to feel for strong over weak layering or taking the time to dig down into the snowpack is a great way to assess if this poor snowpack structure exists.    Any persistent slab avalanche would be large and dangerous potentially taking with it most of the season's snowpack.  Giving avalanche paths wide berths, avoiding be on or connected to slopes over 35 degrees is a great way to stay safe. 

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    4 to 6 inches of snow has fallen in the last 24 hours, combined with moderate to strong winds, expect to find wind drifted slabs near and above treeline.  The most likely place to find wind slabs is on the leeward sides of ridgelines and cross-loaded terrain, however with variable wind directions Easterly winds you may encounter loading in unusual places today. These slabs have been forming on a variety of different surfaces from firmer surfaces like crusts and wind-packed slabs to near-surface facets and may not be bonding well to the older surface.  This storm also had lots of graupel accompanied with it, which can act as a weak layer if it gets buried typically for a couple of days.  Graupel tends to pool and collect on lower angle parts of the slope and below rock bands.   

    Pay attention to wind drifted pillows and shooting cracks off of your ski tips. Avoid slopes where you find 8 or more inches of wind drifted snow.  A smaller wind slab avalanche has the potential to step down into deeper weak layers creating a larger more destructive avalanche.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    Today will bring a return of the sun and warming temperatures that should climb into the 30's and low 40's.  With new snow from yesterday's storm and the intense sun this time of year, we should see small loose wet snow avalanches in steep solar terrain.  Pay attention to rollerballs and pinwheels in the snow as these are indications of the snow surface getting wet. Loose snow avalanches typically start as a point release near rock bands and start to fan out further down the slope.  A smaller loose snow avalanche has the potential to step down into deeper older layers potentially able to trigger deeper weak layers creating a larger avalanche. If you notice an aspect is starting to get wet on the surface, head to a shadier slope with drier snow.

Avalanche Discussion

4 to 6 inches of snow fell Thursday with moderate to strong swirling winds and lots of graupel with this warm and moist weather system.  Today will bring a return of the sun and warm temperatures as we return back to spring-like weather.  There are several things to watch out for today from newly formed wind slabs near and above treeline to small loose wet snow avalanches from the rapid warming today and intense sun this time of year. The big concern continues to be faceted weak layers that lingers deeper down in the snowpack.  Triggering a smaller wind slab or loose snow avalanche increases the chances of a smaller avalanche on the surface stepping down into deeper weak layers creating a larger more destructive avalanche.

Avalanche conditions have slowly eased since the last significant loading event from the Valentines Day/Week storm in mid-February. Unfortunately, we haven't put the faceted weak layers to bed quite yet. Stability tests in shallower snowpacks ( < 150 cm) continue to get propagating results with moderate to hard force.  If you're planning on stepping out into bigger steeper terrain, there is a good chance you will not get immediate feedback, like shooting cracks or loud audible collapses.  Even digging a snowpit in the wrong spot could give you a false sense of security that lures you into steeper terrain until it's too late. As with anything in life, there is always a level of risk and traveling in avalanche terrain is no different.  Right now though, the consequences of triggering a deeper persistent slab avalanche would be quite high if you did pull a slope out, as there is a good chance it would take with it most of the season's snowpack. 

If you're not wanting to deal with these uncertainties, you can always stick to lower-angle wind-sheltered terrain that has some really good skiing and riding conditions right now.   

Yesterday, many of you probably saw the presence of Taos County Search and Rescue at the Williams Lake Trailhead.  Fortunately, everything turned out fine and was not avalanche-related, but it serves as a good reminder of how difficult communication can be in our mountains with limited to no cell coverage.  If you are traveling by yourself and something were to happen to you, there is a good likelihood that you may be spending the night out.  

 

 

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