East Slopes South

You may find difficult travel conditions and small wet avalanches you can trigger as rain and mild temperatures fall on previously shallow dry snow. Don’t let one of these slides push you into a terrain trap or other consequential terrain. As you ascend to the highest elevations, keep an eye out for piles of wind-drifted snow to avoid.

Bumping Ridge at 4600 ft added 5 inches to its snowpack Monday and Monday evening before losing 8 inches to consolidation when the snow changed to heavy rain on late Monday night through Tuesday night. At higher elevations, Green Lake at 5900 ft added 8-14" of snow height before losing 7" to consolidation after the changeover to rain. With temperatures now at or exceeding 40 degrees up to 5900 ft, we expect that all elevations received rain and we're dealing with a wet upper (or perhaps entire) snowpack. Colder temperatures likely produced a supportable crust through much of the terrain and were accompanied by up to 1-2" of new snow that was likely blown into a variable patchwork of scoured slopes and shallow drifts.

We expect less than 0.1" of rain to fall through Friday morning as snow levels rise to 7000 ft. In locations where this shallow snow is wind-drifted, the snow might loose cohesion to create a Wet Loose avalanche as it becomes wet and could run efficiently on the recently formed 1/13 crust. Probe this shallow snow as you travel and avoid slopes steeper than 35 degrees if you find this snow has been wetted by rain or warm temperatures. At the highest elevations, if you find dry snow, steer around lense-shaped drifts steeper than 35 degrees. These drifts should stand out from the shiny crust below.

We think that the snowpack is generally draining recent massive water additions well. Meltwater rills indicate that rain water channels have formed within the snowpack, but there is likely to be water flowing at the base of the snowpack. Known underlying steep bedrock slabs have produced glide cracks and avalanches throughout the NWAC forecast region and if these features exist in your terrain, avoid traveling on or below them. 

Non-avalanche hazards will be significant on Friday:

• Firm and icy slopes have been reported in other forecast zones. Make sure you can self-arrest on the slopes you travel and consider bringing tools if you travel on steeper slopes.
• Creeks may be blown out, difficult to cross, and have high and fast-moving running water.
• Trailheads may be difficult to access due to downed trees, debris, and potentially flooding.

During the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, continue to follow the latest guidance from local, state, and federal health officials. Avoid unnecessary risks that could impact first responders and stress medical resources.  Wear a mask when appropriate, practice social distancing, and consider recreating closer to home.