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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 24th, 2012–Feb 25th, 2012

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Cariboos.

Confidence

Good

Weather Forecast

Tonight: Moderate snowfall - 10-15cm. The freezing level (FL) should be at valley bottom. Winds shift to moderate from the NW. Saturday: Unsettled conditions with up to 10cm of snow. FL at valley bottom. Winds are moderate from the NW. Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud. FL at valley bottom and winds ease to light from the NW. Monday: A mix of sun and cloud. FL at valley bottom.

Avalanche Summary

A natural avalanche cycle occurred on Wednesday and Thursday in most areas. Slab avalanches were reported up to Size 3 on all aspects and at all elevations. There were also several recent reports of skier triggered avalanches and remotely triggered avalanches up to Size 2.0, and a Size 2 snowmobile triggered avalanche near Blue River. The potential for triggering large avalanches will remain high throughout the forecast period.

Snowpack Summary

Strong and variable winds have created deep and weak wind slabs on a variety of aspects at all elevations. 40-90cm of storm snow has now settled into a cohesive slab and overlies the Feb. 9 weakness, which includes surface hoar and/or a crust. This surface hoar layer may be widespread in some areas, while others have reported it being confined to shady aspects at treeline and in the alpine. A melt-freeze crust can be found down 60-90cm on solar aspects at all elevations, and on all aspects below about 1600 meters. In some areas this melt-freeze crust has facets above or below it. Snowpack tests on these layers have generally given easy to moderate "pops or drops" results. There is potential for easy triggering and very wide propagation. There is some concern that large loads like cornices may trigger the Jan. 20th facet layer. Some shallow snowpack areas may continue to have a weak layer of basal facets near the ground.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.