Avalanche forecast

Gunnison

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
Open full map
Out of date — this forecast expired 5 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Below freezing temperatures last night will allow the avalanche danger to start out LOW this morning. The avalanche danger will rise throughout the day as temperatures climb above freezing and the strong April Sun makes its rounds. Loose wet avalanches will be the most widespread and common avalanche problem to manage. While cornice hazards and slab avalanche problems are more isolated on the greater mountain range scale, but these avalanche problems are large and potentially deadly. This video sums up current conditions on 4/1 and looks at expectations heading into the weekend. 

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    In steep, sunbaked terrain, small wet avalanches will become possible to trigger as temperatures climb above freezing and that strong April Sun makes its rounds. The warm temps and the high angle of the sun will even extend this avalanche problem onto some northerly-facing slopes. Most wet loose avalanches will be on the small end of the potential avalanche scale. While small, this avalanche problem has a lot of power and can easily fold your knees into a pretzel, push you over cliffs and into trees for example. As temperatures soar, these avalanches could gouge deeply into a wet unsportive snowpack or trigger a large wet slab avalanche. You can begin identifying this avalanche problem if you see the snow surface producing rollerballs and small sluffs, or you observe a few inches of wet snow on the surface. Move to colder aspects or less consequential terrain when the snow gets hot and mushy. 

    Small skier triggered loose wet avalanches 4/1. The size of these avalanches will grow on larger slopes.

  • Cornices

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2

    Since Monday, falling cornices have produced the largest recent avalanches. Observations include Whetstone, Mt Emmons, and Owen. This is a difficult avalanche problem to predict, as some cornices are just barely hanging on by a thread, and others will never come down until they melt away. Give these overhangs a large berth when traveling above them, and take time to consider your potential overhead hazard when traveling on the terrain below Cornices. 

    Recent Cornice Fall on Mt Owen. Photo: Dave Kozlowski

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2

    Incremental snowfall and windloading in the past month have formed an isolated distribution of slabs over persistent weak layers several feet deep.  Although avalanche activity has been infrequent, use caution on previously drifted, shady aspects where the snowpack is shallower than normal.  That's the type of terrain that most avalanches breaking into older snow have released on.   On Saturday, a natural persistent slab released on Whetstone from wind drifting.  Some avalanche paths that ran in February are suspect because they held shallower, weaker snowpacks that are now getting refilled.   Pay attention to the snowpack structure and assess the consequences of a rare but larger avalanche before riding in steep terrain.  

    3/27: A natural persistent slab on Mt. Whetstone, triggered by wind loading.

Avalanche Discussion

Here we go folks, the heat is on and the mountains are heading into an avalanche cycle through the weekend. Getting an early start to backcountry riding is key, and getting out of avalanche terrain when the snowpack becomes a wet mess is a great strategy. The motorized crowd has the luxury of later starts after the snow has warmed up, but you too will need to limit your exposure to the avalanche problems as the day warms.

Yesterday's high temps were about 12 to 15 degrees warmer than the previous day. 10,400ft hit 50 degrees, 12,300 hit 36 degrees for some weather station examples. A couple of weather stations didn't freeze last night, while the alpine station are just below freezing, and most of the 10,000ft weather stations are in the 20's. The below-freezing temperatures last night will help slow the development of wet avalanche concerns today. High temperatures today will easily climb another 5 degrees on yesterday's high temps. These are some serious jumps in the temperature and those facts shouldn't be taken lightly. Once the overnight temperatures stop dropping below freezing we will see an increased threat for wet slab avalanches, and we may even see the avalanche danger rise to CONSIDERABLE in the coming days. Pay close attention to the overnight temperatures if you are getting an early start before the avalanche bulletin is posted. 

Cornice fall was added to the avalanche problem list this morning after good evidence they are beginning to shed and be unexpectedly triggered by backcountry travelers. The avalanche problem list will see more changes this weekend. The size and likelihood of problems will increase and the highlighted problems may change as we do our best to simplify the most important problems to manage.

 

Regions covered