Avalanche forecast

Sawtooth & Western Smoky Mtns

Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The recent storm left us with especially dangerous avalanche conditions. Human-triggered avalanches are very likely. Stay off of and out from below all steep slopes. Avalanches can be triggered remotely—from below, above, and to the sides of steeper terrain.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    2–3

    While lingering cloud cover obscured portions of the Sawtooths & Western Smokys zone, I observed several large avalanches in the Southern Sawtooths (above/right) and in Smiley Creek. A rider in the Salmon Headwaters reported numerous slides, including one that ran nearly to the valley floor. We can be certain that more avalanches will reveal themselves with even better visibility today.

    Some of these slides failed on the December facets that have been a problem all winter. But others broke on persistent weak layers that were on the surface before this recent storm, and possibly on intermediate layers between the two. Riders in the Western Smokys reported several large collapses yesterday that could have been due to any of these layers. Wasn't life simple when there was just one weak layer?! 

    It'll take some time to tease out the pattern of new persistent weak layers. While our snowpack may be complex, decision-making is simple. Avoid avalanche terrain. Avoid being on, below, or near steep slopes. 

    (1/30/2021) Wide persistent slab avalanche on a peak near the head of Cabin Creek in the Southern Sawtooths. This same slope avalanched in mid-January. E, 9900'.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    The recent storm brought strong winds along with extensive ammunition for drifting. Yesterday's improved visibility provided some unique examples of what strong, sustained winds can do with several feet of low-density new snow. The drifts, dunes, and scallops formed by the wind may be visually interesting to us, but our weak snowpack is not a big fan. The extensive wind drifting is adding more stress to the persistent weak layers described above, making wind-affected slopes even more dangerous. But now we're just talking different shades of scary, and the travel advice remains the same as for the persistent slab problem: Avoid avalanche terrain.

    ADDITIONAL DISCUSSION:Warming temperatures and sunshine today are likely to produce natural loose snow avalanches within the recent storm snow. As these sluffs run downhill, they could trigger larger (and much more dangerous) persistent slab avalanches.

    (1/30/2021) Zoom in on this photo to see extensive drifting and scalloping as a result of strong winds during the recent storm.

Avalanche Discussion

The AVALANCHE WARNING has expired, but conditions remain especially dangerous throughout most of the forecast area. In comparison to our periods of "normal" elevated avalanche danger, conditions now can affect people who may not normally think about avalanches—dog walkers, out-of-bounds skiers, mountain residents. The avalanche danger is such that the only safe approach is to avoid all avalanche terrain. This means avoiding being on, below, or near steep slopes—whether you're in the backcountry, taking a walk, or just past the ski area boundary rope.

If you're reading this, you likely "get it", but maybe you know someone that doesn't. Conditions are ripe for an avalanche accident. In a small town, avalanche deaths impact us all—nearly everyone is only a few degrees of separation from being an acquaintance. Please help spread the word, and if you see someone ducking the rope on Baldy, don't be afraid to speak up. Maybe you'll save a life.

Be sure to check out Scott's latest Weekend Update to catch up on all the excitement.

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