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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 5th, 2014–Jan 6th, 2014

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Northwest Inland.

Confidence

Fair - Timing of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Wednesday

Weather Forecast

Monday: Very Strong Westerly winds overnight becoming strong Southwest during the day. Cloudy with very light precipitation. Above freezing layer from 1500 metres to 2000 metres during the day.Tuesday: Moderate to strong Southwest winds with light precipitation and freezing levels lowering to about 500 metres.Wednesday: A trough is expected to move onto the coast on Wednesday, models disagree on timing of this next storm.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches reported.

Snowpack Summary

A recent profile from 1400 metres elevation on a Northwest aspect in the Hankin area shows the height of snow to be 155 cm. A new layer of surface hoar has been reported to be about 3-5 mm tall and developing during the recent clear weather. There are a couple of resistant planar shears in the top 25 cm that may be sliding on buried facet layers. The snowpack was found to be generally gaining strength with depth until the bottom 40 cm that were weak facetted crystals down to the ground. Other reports from Hankin confirm surface hoar development and moderate resistant planar shears in the top 20-40 cm. but found basal weak layer to be closer to 15-20 cm above the ground. Reports from the Southwest of the region describe more recent storm snow and more wind effect, with sastrugi in open areas and scouring on ridge tops.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.