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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 15th, 2019–Dec 16th, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Kootenay Boundary.

There are two weak layers in the top 60 cm of the snowpack that could be reactive to human triggers, especially in wind affected and shallow snowpack areas. The deeper layer may be difficult to assess and predict, so conservative terrain selection is recommended.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the fact that persistent slabs are particularly difficult to forecast.

Weather Forecast

SUNDAY NIGHT - Cloudy with clear periods / northwest wind, 20-30 km/h / alpine low temperature near -10

MONDAY - Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries / southwest wind, 20-40 km/h / alpine high temperature near -6

TUESDAY - Cloudy with sunny periods and isolated flurries / southwest wind, 20-40 km/h / alpine high temperature near -5

WEDNESDAY - Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries / southwest wind, 20-30 km/h / alpine high temperature near -5

Avalanche Summary

There were reports of a size 1 human triggered avalanche, and natural size 2 avalanche on Saturday that released on the persistent weak layer that is down about 50-60 cm

There were a few reports of explosives triggered storm slab avalanches up to size 2 on Friday.

There were a few human and explosives triggered storm slab avalanches size 1-2 reported on Thursday.

Check out this MIN report of an avalanche in the Big White backcountry on Thursday.

Snowpack Summary

15-30 cm of recent fresh snow sits on a weak layer of feathery surface hoar in many areas, and on a crust on steep south facing slopes. This layer may be reactive to human triggers, especially in wind affected areas.

There is also a persistent weak layer down approximately 50-60 cm that mainly consists of a crust with sugary faceted snow on top of it. This layer may be reactive to human triggers, especially in shallow, rocky areas.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.