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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 2nd, 2025–Jan 3rd, 2025

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Vancouver Island, East Island, North Island, South Island, West Island.

Up to 20 cm of new snow with strong winds are forecast for parts of the Island. Avoid lee slopes, especially if you see blowing snow forming new wind slabs.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Recent reports include two rider-triggered wind slab avalanches in lee terrain features at upper elevations. (Click on photos below for details). Looking forward, with more snow and strong wind in the forecast, we expect wind slabs to remain a problem over the coming days.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 20 cm of new snow with moderate to strong southeast wind, is forecast to fall throughout the day Friday The highest amounts are expected on the southwestern parts of the Island, with limited amounts for the north.

This new snow will add to the current 30 to 40 cm of settling storm snow from the last few days. 50 to 80 cm of older snow from last weekend is settling and bonding well to an underlying crust.

Below 1200 m, surfaces may be moist or crusty.

The remainder of the snowpack has no current layers of concern.

Snowpack depths at treeline are approximately 200 cm on the north and south Island, and 300 cm on the central Island.

Weather Summary

Thursday Night

Cloudy, with 0 to 2 cm of snow. 20 to 30 km/h east ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -3 °C. Freezing level 700 m.

Friday

Cloudy with 0 to 20 cm of snow / light to moderate rain - highest precipitation amounts for the southwestern and central Island regions, lowest for the north. 30 to 60 km/h southeast ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -1 °C. Freezing level 1200 m.

Saturday

Cloudy with 2 to 8 cm of snow / light rain. 40 to 50 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -1 °C. Freezing level 1200 m.

Sunday

Cloudy with 0 to 3 cm of snow/ light rain. 20 to 30 km/h variable ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 0 °C. Freezing level 1500 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Minimize exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow and wind.
  • Wind slabs are most reactive during their formation.
  • Be careful with wind-loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and rollovers.
  • Avalanche activity is unlikely when a thick melt-freeze crust is present on the snow surface.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.