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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 22nd, 2021–Feb 23rd, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast Inland.

Recent snowfall amounts are highly variable across the region. Human triggered slabs remain a concern at upper elevations where recent snow has accumulated, especially in wind-affected terrain. 

Confidence

Moderate - Recent weather patterns have resulted in a high degree of snowpack variability within the region.

Weather Forecast

Lingering flurries continue until Tuesday afternoon.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with flurries bringing up to 5 cm in the north and up to 10 cm in the Cascades, moderate west wind, treeline temperatures drop to -6 C.

TUESDAY: Some isolated flurries in the morning then some clearing in the afternoon, moderate northwest wind at ridgetops, treeline temperatures around -6 C.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny, light wind, treeline temperatures around -8 C.

THURSDAY: Flurries with 5-15 cm of snow, strong southwest wind, treeline temperatures around -6 C.

Avalanche Summary

Sunday night's storm likely resulted in a natural avalanche cycle in many parts of the region. Preliminary reports suggest there were some very large (size 3-4) natural avalanches in the Cascades, while there are no reports from other parts of the region at the time of publishing. The snowpack is likely gaining strength quickly, but steady wind loading will probably leave slabs reactive to human triggering at upper elevations.

Snowpack Summary

Weather stations suggest snowfall amounts from the weekend are 30-50 cm in the Cascades, 20-30 cm at the Duffey, 30-50 cm northwest of Pemberton, and 10-20 cm in the Chilcotin. In all parts of the region, alpine terrain will be heavily wind affected after strong to extreme southwest winds. Freezing levels reached 1500 m during the storm, so expect a rain crust at lower elevations. Recent weather has helped strengthen the lower snowpack including previous layers of concern.

Terrain and Travel

  • Avoid freshly wind loaded terrain features.
  • Don't be too cavalier with decision making, storm slabs may remain sensitive to human triggering.
  • Investigate the bond of the recent snow before committing to your line.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.