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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 19th, 2021–Feb 20th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Jasper.

Monitor the change in weather increasing the danger on Sunday and Monday with potentially 20cm of snow, extreme winds, rising temperatures and high relative humidity. Weather models are not agreeing.

Weather Forecast

Saturday is expected to be sun and flurries, a trace of new snow, -11C, and Light gusting 60km/hr Westerly winds. Sunday will be a change in weather with periods of snow, 17cm during the day, -6 C, and 35 to 80 km/hr winds. On Monday, another 4cm of snow and gusting 80km/hr winds.

Snowpack Summary

Alpine winds have created wind slabs or hard surface conditions in high alpine lee features particularly where local terrain increases the wind action. The upper snowpack are facets and mixed forms over a supportive mid-pack. Thinner snowpack areas it is weak, un-supportive, and facetted.

Avalanche Summary

There was no field patrol on Friday. Thursday's patrol into Whistler creek did not note any new activity. Wednesday's patrol was cut short due to a rescue.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Sunday

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.